Dreams MMA betting preview

Jake Thompson senior staff wirter for www.fighting-mma.com handicaps the upcoming Dreams mixed martial arts show in Japan on April 29, 2008.

Mixed martial arts betting at BetUS.com

Nakahara/Sakuraba

There isn’t a ton known about Nakahara since he hasn’t had an MMA fight yet, but he is a top level karate participant and that’s about it. Sak is a legend and although he has 7 TKO losses, only Wanderlei Silva really did it with one punch. Sak should be a million miles ahead in the takedown category and even if he does get rocked, I can’t see Nakahara having that world class takedown defense that other fighters have shown. Sak should be light years ahead in wrestling and submissions and should get the 1st rounder via submission. This one looks handpicked for the Japanese hero to advance. At -750, there may even be value on Sakuraba but I am not touching such a heavy ML without first seeing Nakahara in MMA.

Funaki/Tamura

Funaki has been around forever but unfortunately I think the game is starting to pass him by. He does have an excellent chin and good submission skills but his standup is not good and after taking 7 years off, he just doesn’t seem like the same fighter. Tamura is just as old and is actually a pretty similar fighter to Funaki. He’s also been fighting regularly and didn’t take the big amount of time off. I’d also give the cardio edge to Tamura. Both guys have nice chins, limited standup, good submission skills, and questionable submission defense. Tamura is -145 which accounts for the cardio edge and not being rusty. No bet here.

Mousasi/Kang

Mousasi has an excellent record but this is quite the step up in competition for him. He’s shown incredible KO power and a rock solid chin. He only has some submission skills though and has been caught with armbars twice now. Kang has solid standup but he did get KO’d in his last fight which makes me wonder how mentally prepared he is going to be. Kang is way ahead in the submission portion of things and that is his best chance to win this fight. Getting Mousasi to the ground and avoiding the big shot is another story altogether though. What this comes down to is that I think Kang will be able to get Mousasi to the ground and end it with strikes or a submission. Kang is just world’s ahead on the ground. I kind of want to place a bet at +225 on Mousasi in case he clips Kang but the ground skills are just so far apart.

Kin/Minowa

Kin is a high level K-1 kickboxer who has switched over to MMA and has done decently at 2-2 against some very tough competition. He is constantly improving but still has issues when put on his back. Minowa has been around a long time now and really should be a better fighter than his record shows but he makes some mistakes from time to time. Minowa’s standup won’t be close to Kin’s here and Minowa has been stopped with punches 9 times in his career so the KO or TKO is definitely doable. I’ve seen Kin’s ground skills increase like crazy since he started MMA and Minowa could be in trouble here because he can’t win standing and he will need to take Kin down to work his ground game and I just am not sure he can get in and do that. It’s definitely possible, but I’ll say Kin continues to improve and gets the knee to the face KO on a takedown attempt.

Talei Kin +265

Sultanakhmedov (Sultan)/Galesic

Sultan is a kickboxer and submission wrestler who has started off pretty hot in his MMA career, although finishing fights has been an issue. He fights smart though and has shown good all around skills. He has a muay thai background but doesn’t seem to throw to KO people as much as he tries to score points and keep himself balanced and away from danger. Galesic has more MMA-aimed muay thai and is an aggressive striker who won’t let Sultan sit back and jab. Zaig comes to fight and generally doesn’t last long. He’s pretty much the opposite of Sultan but he does have the KO power to end this. Sultan just fights smarter though and I’d give him the slight edge.

Magomed Sultanakhmedov +185

Oyama/Soon

Oyama is a big fan of getting KO’d or TKO’d and really hasn’t developed a consistent MMA game to deal with strikes yet. His submission game has definitely improved but his standup hasn’t taken a step forward. Soon doesn’t have much of a standup game either but is a good judoka who can work submissions on the ground. Soon should get top position with a throw against an over-excited Oyama and work from there. If Yoon does go down, Oyama doesn’t have the ground-and-pound or the submission skills to submit him with top position. I’d even make Soon a small favorite with bottom position as he likes to roll into armbars if given an opening. Yoon is -225 and that is about where he should be. No play.

Aoki/Calvancanti

JC -250

All day every day. He is the better fighter and was hurting Aoki before he got DQ’d for an illegal shot. I don’t see anywhere where Aoki can hurt him.

Mixed martial arts betting at BetUS.com