 vs
UFC 78: Validation
Saturday November 17 9:00PM (EST)
Ed Herman vs. Joe Doerksen
Doerksen +120
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This is a tough match to call. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (13-5) has been spotty at best in the UFC. He has yet to pull out a string of performances against middle tier fighters and we do not know if he can adapt to the UFC and raise his game. He has two straight wins over Scott Smith at UFC 72: Victory and Chris Price at UFC Fight Night 8 with submission victories but these are guys that don’t have near as much experience asJoe “El Dirte” Doerksen (38-10). Prior to Herman’s win over Price he had two straight loses to Jason MacDonald at UFC Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter and to Kendall Grove at the Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale.
Herman has a decent ground game and but his main area is wrestling control and a decent ground a pound. Surprisingly, out of his 13 wins 3 have been by submission and the rest by submission. This is a telling sign that Herman will have a difficult time in this match.
Joe Doerksen is a very experience grappler and one of hte cagiest mixed martial arts veterans in the game today. He has fought some of the toughest people in MMA with wins over Patrick Côté, Chris Leben, Denis Kang, John Alessio, and Lee Murray. He has already beaten Ed Herman once before at SF 7: Fright Night with a triangle choke but that was in 2004. Out of his 38 wins, 30 have been by submission. If this fight turns into a grapplers duel they is not question that Doerksen is more skilled and way better on the ground. Herman does not have the knock out power to hurt Doerksen who has faced much better strikers so the fear of a TKO is out of the question. Doerksen last lost was to Paulo Filho for the vacant WEC middleweight championship at WEC 29. Even though he lost Herman has not even come close to fighting anyone of that caliber.
Bottom Line: The problem with Doerksen is that he keeps losing to top level fighters like Paulo Filho, Nathan Marquardt, Matt Lindland, Joe Riggs, David Loiseau, Egan Inoue, and Matt Hughes. But is Ed Herman a top level fighter yet? I’d have to say no. Their fight was 3 years ago but I feel Herman has not improved that much as a fighter to beat a crafty veteran like Doerksen. Doerksen has an incredible ground game and he will be able to position himself against a wrestler turned submission fighter.
If you break it down can Herman beat the people Doerksen has lost too? Can he defeat Paulo Filho, Nathan Marquardt or Denis Kang. Not a chance. Can Doerksen beat Jason MacDonald or Kendal Grove. Yes
Take Doerksen with another submission in the second round
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