UFC RIO: Aldo vs. Mendes
January 20, 2012
Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller
UFC Betting Pick: Anthony Johnson (+120)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Bodog or Bovada
Lightweight bout: Melvin “The Young Assassin“ Guillard (+150) vs. Jim Miller (-180)
If you were to ask me, Jim Miller (20-3) is one of the top three fighters in the lightweight division. Though he lost a one-sided decision to Ben Henderson at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle, I still believe him to be the cream of the crop at 155 pounds.
If Miller did not fall in his last bout he would be a bigger UFC odds favorite than he currently is—at -180 this fight is a steal. In all reality he should be at -250 or -300 with the online sportsbooks.
Melvin “The Young Assassin“Guillard (29-9) is a top ten fighter, or maybe even a top five fighter, however, one of his biggest weaknesses is grappling and he will be facing one of the best grapplers in the lightweight division with Miller. Of his nine MMA losses eight of them have come by submission. Being one of the best Miller will use his stalky size to get the smaller framed Guillard to the ground and once there, it will only be a mater of time before Guillard is tapped out.
Though Guillard is one of the most athletic fighters around today he would definitely rank higher than he currently is if only he were to truly dedicate himself to MMA. He is fast, agile and experienced—at 28 years of age he currently has 41 professional fights to his name. On most days he can take anyone but he needs to shore up his grappling to complement his striking if he were to be considered an upper echelon fighter.
Dedication is what Guillard lacks as proven by the eight month suspension he received from the Nevada State Athletic Commission after testing positive for cocaine after his fight with Joe Stevenson at UFC Fight Night 9. Guillard has all the talent but not the dedication to the game and lifestyle as required by a true champion.
Miller on the other hand is a tireless worker who is always in the gym preparing for his next upcoming fight. Though Ben Henderson and Guillard have a similar fighting style, Guillard will not be able to down Miller as Henderson did. Henderson is bigger and stronger, not to mention quite well versed on the mats—something that Guillard is not.
With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Jamie Cruz, compared to Guillard’s blue belt under Ricco Rodriguez, Miller has Guillard beat. Not only is he a great grappler but Miller is also a decent wrestler. He is of fair size and is quite strong with a year of collegiate wrestling at Virginia Tech to his name. Miller will use his size and power to get Guillard to the ground and from there he will dominate.
One thing that Miller needs to be mindful of however is Guillard’s quick hands— Guillard is the superior striker and has 19 wins by KO. Though not a power puncher, Guillard is quite quick and I can see Miller getting hit, however, he has yet to be KO’ed in his career.
Miller is a smart fighter and has only lost three times in his career and that was to current lightweight champ Frankie Edgar; top contender Gray Maynard at UFC 96: Jackson vs. Jardine; and top contender Ben Henderson at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle. The only top guys that Guillard has come across has been Joe Lauzon at UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III and Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard. Despite the great number of fights he has under his belt Guillard has yet to face some serious contenders.
Bottom Line: Guillard can catch Miller with his strikes but it has to be within the first two minutes of the fight. He has to snare Miller fast as once he gets his timing and grows accustomed to Guillard’s speed Miller will be able to control the fight.
Miller is not the greatest striker and is nowhere as technical as Guillard, however, he is compact and always has his hands up to deflect the strikes. Miller can defend against Guillard’s strikes but Guillard cannot counter Miller’s grappling. If this fight goes to the second round, Miller will be able to time Guillard and get a takedown for a rear naked choke
Bet heavily on this fight for a Miller win.
Look for Miller to Submit Guillard in the Second Round with a Rear Naked Choke
Bet on the UFC at BetOnline - Because You Can
Free Mixed Martial Arts Picks Archive «