UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson
February 26, 2012
Joe Lauzon vs Anthony Pettis
UFC Betting Pick: Joe Lauzon (+220)
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Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon (+220) vs Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-300)
Joe “Creepy” Lauzon (21-6) is one of the best fighters in the lightweight division and when the UFC odds for this fight came out I was surprised he was such an underdog. He is a very competitive and dangerous fighter and has the ability to beat anyone at anytime in the lightweight division.
Lauzon always puts on a good show which is reflected in his UFC fight bonuses and has earned five Submission of the Night Honors and three Fight of the Night Honors.
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (14-2) is a very aggressive fighter that likes to push the pace of a fight with his very good striking skills. A third degree black belt in Taekwondo and currently coached by legendary kickboxer and MMA trainer Duke Roufus, Pettis currently mixes it up at Roufusport with the likes of Pat Barry, Matt Mitrione, Eric Schafer, Alan Belcher, Ben Rothwell and Ben Askren.
Pettis needs to be mindful of not going too wild as he sometimes does as Lauzon is a very patient and smart fighter with a lot of skill who will not hesitate to stand and trade if he wants to take this fight to the ground.
Pettis has great aggressive kicks and likes to throw them from different angles. Lauzon however has the reach advantage and should be able to keep Pettis at bay with his jabs and one two punch combinations. Pettis can be very dangerous and has great cardio but if Lauzon can keep the distance, change up the levels and move in and out he should be able to avoid Pettis’ legs and perhaps catch a lick and take this fight to the ground.
One of the main reasons why Pettis is such a big UFC betting favorite is because of his famous fight with Benson Henderson. In that particular fight Pettis landed what is now called the Showtime Kick by springing off of the cage with his right foot, making a shearing movement with his left leg, and coming into contact with Henderson in the face with his right foot.
Though this kick put Pettis on the MMA map, if one were to look at his loses Pettis has fallen to some good, but not great, fighters such as Clay Guida and Bart Palaszewski.
Lauzon may not be flashy and may not look like a prized fighter as he is tall and lanky, he is however, quite well rounded and may put up a better battle than expected. If this fight goes to the ground this is where Lauzon can dominate and win.
Having long limbs has helped Lauzon become a very high level grappler. If he gains top position he can use his base control for a good ground and pound and get the rear naked choke. If he is in his guard Lauzon can use his long limbs for triangle chokes or arm bars. What is perhaps the best attribute of Lauzon’s grappling game is that fact that he is very versatile and has a number of submissions he attempts in either the top or bottom.
Bottom Line: I like the fact that Lauzon is more experience and is capable of fighting in any area of the game. I do not believe Pettis has come across the level of fighter that Lauzon has and to be honest, a +220 betting line is just too good to pass up when it comes to a fighter like Lauzon.
It is somewhat justified to have Pettis as the favorite due to his striking but at +220, this is a hard bet to pass up.
I like this fight to go over as Lauzon is a very tough fighter with a good chin and as this battle goes into the latter rounds I think Pettis will become fatigued and Lauzon will be able to capitalize and get this fight to the ground where he will choke Pettis out with his long limbs.
Bet on Lauzon to Take This Fight to Go Over and to Win with a Late Round Submission
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