UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit
February 05, 2012
Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit
UFC Betting Pick: Nick Diaz (-175)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Bodog or Bovada
Interim Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (-175) vs. Carlos "The Natural Born Killer" Condit (+155)
Let us start off by saying that in our humble opinion, we think both these fighters are capable of taking current UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre, so it is only fitting that they face each other for the UFC Interim Welterweight title. This is a very hard fight to call as both these warriors fight the same way.
Swinging for the fence, pushing the pace of the fight and engaging at any cost are just some of the things we can always expect to see in a Diaz or Condit fight. Both are notable strikers, decent grapplers and on top of it all, have great cardio, however, if we had to take sides, we would need to go with Nick Diaz (26-7) as he has the slight edge in most categories.
It seems as if the online odds makers feel the same as we do because Diaz is the favorite—the UFC odds have Diaz at -175 while Carlos "The Natural Born Killer" Condit (27-5) is the underdog at -155. It could be because Diaz is the better known of the two but we think lines of about -110 on both sides are perhaps more realistic. This will be a tough back and forth battle but will most likely go in favour of Diaz.
When it comes to striking Condit has more power and is more explosive—he uses knee and kick combinations while Diaz, the one-time professional boxer is more technical, but somewhat awkward. Diaz made his professional boxing debut in April 2005 against Alfonso Rocha and won a unanimous decision after four rounds. His MMA striking style is very unorthodox to say the least—his punches do not look threatening yet he throws a lot of them and at all angles which can add up to some significant damage. Though he is quite lanky his reach is still somewhat surprising and his jabs have a lot of snap and speed behind them.
Condit may not be as technical as Diaz however, but he still gets a decent number of punches out there—he throws them hard and in 27 MMA fights he has 13 KO’s. Condit has the ability to KO Diaz, but Diaz is one of those fighters that do not go down easy, however, the same can also be said about Condit who has never been KO’ed. Given that Diaz is fast with his hands, he will win the stand up battle.
Condit has the advantage when it comes to wrestling and if he wants to win this one, he will need to score the takedown points, but if this fight stays on the mats it will be a different story. Both fighters are high level grapples with Condit being a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and notable when it comes to no gi grappling—he has 13 wins by submission, however, he will be facing Diaz who is a very accomplished black belt under Cesar Gracie. Diaz was the US Purple Belt Open champion in 2004 and Pan American Brown Belt Medium Weight Division title holder in 2005. He is widely known for his impressive closed guard which uses frequently in his fights.
Bottom Line: Both these fighters are very aggressive in the cage and will come out swinging as that is their style. Given his long reach, Diaz will catch Condit with a barrage of jabs and straight one, two combos. To avoid his hands I can see Condit trying to open up and toss wild punches which is what will get him caught. In his spare time Diaz competes in triathlons in order to keep his cardio up, making it almost impossible for Condit to match his pace. By the third round the sheer amount of punches the “Energizer bunny-like” Diaz will throw is going to takes its toll and Condit will go down.
Look for Diaz to KO Condit late in the Third Round
Bet on the UFC at BetOnline - Because You Can
Free Mixed Martial Arts Picks Archive «