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UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem
December 30, 2011
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone
UFC Betting Pick: Donald Cerrone (-255)
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Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz (+215) vs. Donald "The Cowboy" Cerrone (-255)
Though Donald "The Cowboy" Cerrone (17-3) is one of the best lightweight fighters in the UFC, he will have a tough time against Nate Diaz (14-7) in his upcoming fight.
Both cage warriors have a similar style with Cerrone being a bit more well rounded and refined in his MMA, however, Diaz has a lot of talent and some decent grappler technique, not to mention he is also a very game fighter, but he does not have “man strength” as of yet and is a bit disadvantaged here when compared to Cerrone.
If one was to break down Diaz’s fight with Rory MacDonald at UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields; his bout with Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. Diaz; against Joe Stevenson at the Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale; or Clay Guida at UFC 94; St-Pierre vs. Penn 2, Diaz had more skill on the ground and was more technically sound then all of these fighters BUT each of these men were physically stronger than Diaz which is what cost him all these battles.
When it comes to grappling Diaz is very technical and has a decent game. Though he is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Cerrone is a very high level grappler with 13 submission victories in 17 wins, Diaz hails from the Gracie line through team Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu and Jake Shields, Gilbert Melendez, Caio Terra and his brother Nick Diaz are just some of the high level BJJ grapplers Nate Diaz rolls with on a regular basis.
Cerrone may have a good grappling game but he is loose but in MMA, however, when you factor in the fact that a gi is not worn and add punching and wrestling, any grappling advantage Diaz has over Cerrone is nullified.
One disadvantage of training at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu is the fact that it is still very much a BJJ club turned MMA facility, meaning that all facets of the sport are not offered here as of yet—wrestling, one of the fundamentals of the MMA skill set is missing from the list. Cerrone hails from Greg Jackson's Submission Fighting Gaidojutsu where the likes of Rashad Evans, Nathan Marquardt, Keith Jardine, Georges St-Pierre, Leonard Garcia call home.
Both fighters are very aggressive and are not afraid to stand and trade. As aggressive as Diaz is, Cerrone has more power and is more technical on his feet. His background is in Muay Thai and he ne won his first 25 Muay Thai bouts as well as the 2006 S-1 United States Muay Thai Championship and 2006 Dominion Warrior Light Heavyweight World Champion.
Cerrone will be able to pick apart Diaz with his technique and because he has the size and strength advantage, Cerrone will over power Daiz with his strikes.
Bottom Line: Diaz is a very good bottom grappler but because Cerrone is stronger and more powerful, it will be hard for Diaz to get the fight back upright if it hits the ground. Given Cerrone’s advantage when it comes to striking and wrestling it is unlikely the lanky Diaz will be able to pull anything spectacular out of his hat for this one.
Cerrone will batter Diaz for all three rounds and pull off a victory but Diaz will not go down easy.
As a UFC bettor, Cerrone will batter Daiz all three rounds and win pull out a victory
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