UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem
December 30, 2011
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem
UFC Betting Pick: Alistair Overeem(-160)
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Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar (+140) vs. Alistair “Demolition Man” Overeem (-160)
Alistair “Demolition Man” Overeem (35-11) is the 2010 and 2011 International Fighter of the Year and when he makes his UFC debut at UFC 141, expect him to destroy Brock Lesnar (5-2). Though Lesnar may be known for his superior wrestling ability, Overeem is, after all, one of the most devastating strikers in the heavyweight division today.
Not only was Overeem the 2010 Dream Heavyweight Champion, he also held the title with Strikeforce and in addition to these MMA titles, Overeem was also is the K-1 2010 World Grand Prix Champion in kickboxing. Since his early days in Pride, Overeem has worked vigorously on his game to become the complete fighter. Known primarily as a striker with a kick boxing background, his game has progressed steadily since he won the 2005 submission grappling ADCC European Championship, and with a total of 19 submission victories in MMA, Overeem’s skills on the mat are now a force to be reckoned with.
Though Brock Lesnar may be better known as a powerhouse in the MMA, the relatively “unknown” Overeem will be his undoing. As good as Lesnar is when it comes to wrestling, this is more than negated by his striking—though powerful Lesnar has virtually no technique and tends to “push” more than anything. His legwork is not much better as his kicks are very awkward and almost embarrassing to witness—when Lesnar faces the K1 champion in Overeen, he will be picked apart. Lesnar’s only chance against Overeem is to take him down for the ground and pound, however, Overeem is just as big and strong as Lesnar and for Lesnar to get the shoot in, he will need to figure out how to close the distance on a world champion striker. If this fight was to go to the ground, Overeem has a very good ground game and is known for his signature guillotine choke and is actually one of the few cage warriors out there who is big enough to wrap around Lesnar’s head to choke him out.
Bottom Line: Though Overeem has six losses by KO, Lesnar does not have the technical skills to finish him this way. If this fight stays standing Overeem will pick Lesnar apart with jabs and power strikes as well as with his kicks. Overeem started his martial arts career with Golden Glory in Holland which is considered the best muay thai club in the world and is renown for their fighters.
Overeem has also fallen by submission however that was to Fabricio Werdum who is a world class grappler. Though he is a good wrestler, Lesnar does not have the skill nor the technique to pull off a submission. Even though he was able to submit Shane Carwin with a triangle choke at UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin, that was against a very tired looking opponent. His arm triangle was quite sloppy and if Carwin had hipped instead of turning away from the choke he would have been able to get out of it—there is no way Lesnar will be able to pull such a submission on Overeem.
Lastly, Overeem has lost three times by decision. Lesnar has only gone the distance once and that was during a three round fight—he does not have the cardio and definitely does not have the skill to go five with Overeem.
When it comes to UFC betting this fight is a steal and in my humble opinion should be a -450 in favor of Overeem. I recommend you bet heavy on Overeem to take this one as I do not think Lesnar will make it out of the second round.
Overeem has amazing knees and kicks and he tends to pack a lot of power behind his punches, not to mention he is extremely technical all around. I really do not see this fight lasting too long as Lesnar is still very green in MMA and will not be able to handle the complete fighter in Overeem.
Look for Overeem to KO Lesnar in the Second Round
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