UFC 139 Predictions - Shogun Rua vs. Dan Henderson Preview - UFC 139 Betting Lines - UFC Sports Betting - UFC 139 Odds
UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson is Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson
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Maurício "Shogun" Rua (-140) vs. Dan Henderson (+120)by Stan Leung |
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UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício "Shogun" Rua (-140) vs. Dan Henderson (+140) For a mixed martial arts fan this is a super fight. Both fighters are some of the best fighters in the last decade. Maurício "Shogun" Rua (20-5) is looking to bounce back after his devastating loss to Jon Jones and looking to get back in the UFC light heavyweight title picture. He already avenged his loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 134 and not looking to beat one of the most durable and toughest fighters in MMA history in Dan Henderson (28-8). So who will win this fight? To me this fight is one of the hardest fights to handicap. There is one UFC bet I don’t know for sure and this is this fight will go to a decision. Dan Henderson is just one of those fighters whose fights always go to a decision. He is not known as Decision Dan for nothing. If you look at his MMA career he has had 18 fights out of 28 go the distance. Dan Henderson might have won his last 3 fights by KO but if you look at his fight history his fights tend to go the distance. If there is one UFC bet to make in this fight it is the UFC prop bet for this fight to go to a decision. Henderson is by far a better wrestler than Shogun. He is one of the most decorated wrestlers in MMA. Henderson was a high school wrestling team state champion and went on to wrestle at both Cal State Fullerton and Arizona State University where he participated in the 1993 NCAA championships. Henderson also represented the US in the 1992 and 1996 Summer Olympics in Greco-Roman wrestling. Even though he is a much better wrestler Henderson never uses he wresting to win fights. Henderson has turned into a puncher in the last couple of year. The funny thing is that Henderson is not a technical puncher. He has one punch that everyone knows is coming and that is the over hand right. Every fighter knows it’s coming and everyone tries to defend it but Henderson still lands it. The problem with Henderson and his vicious striking is that when he fights more technical fighters he tends to lose. Henderson would rather stand and trade punches than use his wrestling to win fights. Shogun is a much more technical fighter and very powerful. If this turns into a stand up fight Shogun will land the better punches and kicks because that is his specialty. Shogun is by far a better striker. He has more power and more technique. Shogun has the leg kicks and the arsenal of pouches that can keep Henderson at bay. Henderson only has his over hand right and if he connects he can KO Shogun but Shogun is so much more technical and has the ability and technique to defend the over hand right. Grappling wise Shogun is a better grappler but the one problem with Shogun is that he is a loose grappler and likes to fight more on the bottom. Fighting a wrestler like Henderson in guard is not a wise move since Henderson can use his base and pressure to hold down Shogun who is very loose on his back. Shogun likes to attack for leg locks and heel hooks but against a well based fighter like Henderson those are ineffective and if Shogun does not land the leg lock he winds up n the bottom and can be hit from above. If this fight goes to the ground I give the advantage to Henderson even though Shogun is much more technical on the ground. I think this fight will be a striking battle and both fighters will stand and trade but I think Shogun is the more technical fighter and can stay out of Henderson’s reach and land the harder shots. Even though this fight will be won by Shogun in the stand up he will not be able to put hi away. Henderson has never been KO’ed in his MMA career. He has one of the hardest heads and he can take a punch and a beating. Bottom Line: Yes Henderson has a punchers chance to win this fight but there is one very interesting statistic. Henderson has 8 MMA loses in his career. Five out of those 8 loses have come from Brazilians. Henderson does not seem to do well with Brazilians. In many of those loses to Brazilians he has lost by submission. Henderson does not have that good a grappling game and he is susceptible to submission loses and that is why he does not use his wrestling in his mind. This fight will be a striking battle as both fighters have the power and KO power. Since Henderson has never been KO'ed I don’t think Shogun can KO him and he does have a punchers chance to land the KO on Shogun. This makes me afraid to take Shogun even though I think he will win. For this reason I think Shogun will win and to bet on this fight to go to a decision. Look for Shogun to Win a Three Round Split Decision. |
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