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UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields
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José "Junior" Aldo (-450) vs. Mark "The Machine" Hominick (+330)by Geoff Mackay |
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UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields Featherweight Championship bout: José "Junior" Aldo (-450) vs. Mark "The Machine" Hominick (+330) After the annihilation of George Roop at UFC: Fight for the Troops 2, Mark Hominick (20-8) proclaimed that he was the best striker in the featherweight division. He also went ahead to say he was a better striker than his next opponent, José Aldo (19-1), which cannot be further away from the truth. Aldo is most likely the best pound for pound fighter in the world. While in the WEC he was able to amass an impressive seven KO’s in eight outings against the likes of Manvel Gamburyan, Mike Brown, Cub Swanson, Chris Mickle, Rolando Perez, Jonathan Brookins and Alexandre Nogueira. The only fighter Aldo was not able to KO was Urijah Faber but it obvious Aldo was just toying with him at the end—he laid a beat down on Faber that no one else has been able to do since. So in reality, if Hominick believes he is the best striker in the featherweight division, it is only he that thinks that. It is unlikely Hominick can take Aldo in the stand up even though he dominated Roop entirely—that was Roop and there is no comparison between Roop and Aldo. Hominick’s claim to the top spot is not entirely out of the park as he may well be the second best technical striker in the division, but that is still second and is far from the level where Aldo current is at. Aldo trains at Black House and with some of the best and feared strikers in the game—Anderson Silva, current UFC Middleweight Champion; Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante, current Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion; Ronaldo "Jacaré" Souza, current Strikeforce Middleweight Champion; Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira, former Pride FC heavyweight champion and former UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion; Lyoto Machida, former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion; Paulo Filho, former WEC Middleweight Champion; as well as Antônio Rogério Nogueira, Junior dos Santos, Paulo Thiago and Mario Miranda. Hominick trains out of The Adrenaline Training Center in London, Ontario with Sam Stout and Chris Horodecki who was recently released from the WEC. He divides his time there as an instructor to the local weekend warriors and as a student of Shawn Tompkins. As a MMA “authority” Shawn Tompkins does not exactly stack up—as a fighter he was zero and four with all his losses by KO. For a trainer who claims to be world class losing all the matches in his professional MMA career does not exactly exude confidence in his abilities. Aldo already has Hominick beat when it comes to striking and also overshadows him when it comes to kicking. He has one of the most devastating leg kicks in all of mixed martial arts and does not hesitate to use his long legs to batter his opponents. Checking Aldo’s quick and powerful kicks is hard to do and the best move an opponent can make is to get of out his way, however, moves like this can throw a guy off balance which will make him susceptible to Aldo’s deadly strikes. Hominick will need to pick his poison when he fights Aldo—does he want to be battered in the standup or destroyed on the ground? As good as a striker that he is, Aldo is perhaps an even better grappler—his domination of opponents in the standup takes away from the fact that he is also a very good on the ground. Not only does Aldo fine tune his striking at Black House, he also trains at Nova União, which is one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu clubs in the world. Founded by former Carlson Gracie Black Belt, Andre Pederneiras, Nova União in Rio de Janeiro is in the midst of revolutionizing grappling as we know it. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Aldo always trains with a gi. Training with a gi tends to give one more base and weight control while grappling and the extra clothing further restricts the amount of space for movement requiring a fighter to think or strategize carefully before each move. Bottom Line: So how does Hominick want to lose? His grappling skills are not notable so his best chance is to try to take Aldo with his striking—and that is not going to happen. As it is unlikely Hominick will be able to beat Aldo, if I was setting the UFC betting lines I would have set the odds at -600 or so, however, even at -450 on the money line it is still a steep bet to make. Personally, I would parlay this bet with another so the payout is better. This would be a good one to parlay with the Georges St-Pierre fight—St-Pierre is at -460 and Aldo is at -450 so parlaying both these bets at $100 will net you $48.79, however, to make $100 you would need to front $450—something to think about. Watch Aldo Destroy Hominick with a First Round KO |
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