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TUF 14 Finale
December 3, 2011
Michael Bisping vs. Jason Miller
UFC Betting Pick: Jason Miller (+175)
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Middleweight bout: Michael "The Count" Bisping (-210) vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller (+175)
I was very surprised to see that Jason "Mayhem" Miller (24-7) is the UFC betting underdog in this fight despite the fact that he has fallen to some of the world’s best fighters such as Jake Shields, Ronaldo Souza, Frank Trigg, Georges St-Pierre, and Chael Sonnen.
Miller has been a top level fighter for many years now and has fought around the world, but he has not made an appearance in the UFC since his loss to St-Pierre at UFC 52 over six years ago.
I think Miller is the online betting underdog in this one as he has not fought in the UFC in a while and Michael "The Count" Bisping (24-3) has the UFC marketing machine behind him.
Though Bisping is a very good fighter and has the advantage in the stand up, Miller is a very cagey and smart warrior. He will be patient and wait for an opening and should dominant this fight with his better takedowns and grappling.
When it comes to striking, Bisping is very good and quite technical. Though known for his striking, most of his KO victories came prior to the UFC when he fought below average fighters in England. With 14 fights to his name among the big boys, he has won seven via TKO, but most were against average fighters. Though Bisping has the power and skills advantage, Miller has only been KO’ed once in his career.
Miller is not known as a striker but has squared off against some hefty strikers in the past such as Robbie Lawler and was able to use his takedown and grappling ability to win. Miller is experienced enough to know to stay outside of any striker’s reach and wait for the perfect time to take a fight to the ground.
Grappling. Miller is known for his wrestling takedowns and grappling ability and currently trains with Jake Ellenberger to improve his skillset. Though Bisping has a good wrestling defense he has not fought a pure grappler and wrestler such as Miller so he may encounter some “difficulty”—once this fight hits the ground Miller will dominate. He has faced some of the best grapplers in the world such as Jake Shields and Ronaldo Souza and was able to hold his own—Bisping is no match.
Bottom Line: In my mind Miller is by far the better fighter—he has the experience and is a much better grappler. Though Bisping is the better striker, Miller has only been KO’ed once in his career and that was by a soccer kick to the head by Frank Trigg. Miller has a way of goading his opponent to fight his game and is much too experienced to be drawn into a striking battle with Bisping.
Though Bisping is a good striker, there is one aspect of his game that bothers me—his wide stance. This is a remnant from his kickboxing days as boxers tend to position themselves wider for more power behind their kicks. Not only does this telegraph his kicks, but this also costs Bisping in terms of mobility and opens him up to wrestling shots. In his fight with Dan Henderson, Henderson was the smarter more experienced fighter and was able to position Bisping where he wanted him. Like Henderson, Miller is the smarter more experienced one and should be able to draw Bisping to where he needs him to be in order to win this fight.
At +175 this is one of the best fights to lay some coin on that I have seen in a while. It appears the fans and sports betting odds makers are not truly aware of how good a fighter Miller really is which makes this is a perfect underdog bet to make in return for some serious cash.
Look for Miller to Beat Bisping by a Three Round Decision
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