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UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko Mixed Martial Arts Matchups Handicapping Analysis

by Stan Leung
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Light Heavyweight bout:  Jon "Bones" Jones (-600) vs.  Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko (+400)

Jon "Bones" Jones (11-1) is the next wave and the future of not only the UFC but mixed martial arts. At only 22 years old he has what it takes to be a future champion. He has incredible strikes and youth on his side.

He will be fighting a cagy veteran and a very strong Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko who will prove to be the toughest test for Jones but in the end he will overcome Matyushenko with speed, power and his strikes.

Jones’ has too much speed for Matyushenko in this mixed martial arts fight. Jones’ striking is one of the best and he has quick fast and unpredictable punches and kicks. Matyushenko is not a heavy striker and likes to use his wrestling to take down opponents and control them.

Jones has sought the best people to train with to hone his rising skills. He briefly with the Tristar Gym in Montreal, Canada and George St Pierre and most recently started training at Jackson's Submission Fighting in Albuquerque, New Mexico with Greg Jackson and the best MMA club in the world.

If this fight was just a couple of years ago this would have been a much closer fight. But Jones is younger, faster and more dynamic with his strikes.  Matyushenko’s last 3 fights have gone to a decision and he needs time to get his game going. Jones on the other hand is a pressure fighter that will overwhelm Matyushenko.

Jon was a 2005 state wrestling champion while a senior at Union-Endicott High School and a national Junior College Champion at Iowa Central Community College. He does not have the pedigree that Matyushenko has for wrestling but that doesn’t matter since his speed and quick strikes will end this fight early in the first round. The UFC betting lines for this fight are pretty steep so the best bet is a UFC prop bet for a first round knock out.

Bet heavily on Jones and take the UFC prop bet for Jones to KO Matyushenko in the first round.

Middleweight bout:  Yushin Okami (-200) vs.  Mark Muñoz (+160)

Yushin Okami (24-5) is a very slow starter when he fights. In his last 7 fights five of them have gone to a decision. He has all the tools to be a great fighter but he need to pick up the pace in the first round. Okami tends to feel out his opponent in the first and maybe second round but them usually picks it up in the late second and third rounds.

Okami has fought top level fighters and held his own while Mark Muñoz is a big powerful fighter but tends to tire out from lack of conditioning. Both fighters have good stand up and this will be a standup battle. Mark Muñoz has good hands but he will have problems with the technical striking and reach of Okami.

Okami has very good technical striking and always has his hands up and a long reach. He will jab and push back Muñoz with his strikes; especially his jabs.

Muñoz has a great pedigree on the ground with a solid wrestling base. He became the first Filipino American at the Division I Level to win a National Championship. He also made the NWCA All-Academic Team for three years and the Big 12 All-Academic squad for four. Additionally, Muñoz was a three-year member of the FILA Junior World Wrestling Team, earning the silver medal in 1998.

However in mixed martial arts he relies on his power and striking instead and he will have a hard time taking the bigger fighter in Okami.

The first round will go to Muñoz. In the second and third rounds Okami will start to gauge his distance and push back Muñoz with his jabs. He will pick apart Muñoz and take over the striking battle. This fight will go to a decision. I would bet the money line and UFC prop bet for Okami to win by decision. The sports betting lines for this fight are pretty good and I would also take Okamion the moneyline.

Welterweight bout:  John Howard vs.  Jake Ellenberger

John Howard is a power and fast striker. He has power on both hands and can knockout Ellenberger if he has the chance. However, all Ellenberger has to do is weather the storm on the first round. If he gets out of the first round he will win the fight.

If you look at Ellenberger’s record he has never been knocked out in 27 fights. He has more experience than Howard and will have the cage smarts to over come the initial fury of Howard’s pressure. He has a win over a tough Mike Pyle and lost a close split decision over top rated fighter Carlos Condit.

I like Ellenberger to use his speed and gets the takedown to control Howard. Howard has a weak ground game and if taken down he will not know what to do, Ellenberger has good strikes with power and more technical striking than Howard who has more power than technique.

Look for Ellenberger to start off striking with Howard but will close the distance and get the takedown. Once the fight hits the ground he will control Howard for a second round rear naked choke.

Lightweight bout:  Tyson Griffin vs.  Takanori Gomi

This is a good fight for Takanori Gomi. He can not compete with the larger sized fighters in the UFC. Tyson Griffin is a good size for him and great matchup. Gomi is a striker and he Achilles heel is the ground game.

Gomi had a problem with Kenny Florian’s size and ground game. But Tyson Griffin is a smaller fighter and does not have the technical ground game that to threaten Gomi. Gomi has the power to threaten Griffin with his strikes which will affect his wrestling shot attempts.

Look for Gomi to hit Griffin with his strikes and keep him back. Griffin is not big enough to compete in the UFC 155 light weight division. He should really be fighting in the WEC with the smaller fighters. This shows in his fights as Griffin can keep up with the best but he can not finish them.

In his last 9 fight 8 of them has come by decision. Griffin wins his fight through being more active but he will be wary of the power and strikes of Gomi.

I expect this fight to go the distance but Griffin will not be able to get the takedown points and Gomi will get the better of him in the strikes. Remember that Griffin is a last minute replacement so he won’t have a full training camp to prepare for Gomi.

Bet the prop bet for Gomi to win a split decision.

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