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UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez
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Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (+130) vs. Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (-160)by Stan Leung |
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UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Light Heavyweight bout: Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (+130) vs. Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (-160) I still have faith that Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (15-7) that he is still a top fighter in the UFC. No I don’t think he can compete with the top 205 pound light heavyweight fighters in the division but I do think he can beat most C+ to B level fighters. To me Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (11-2) is still a green fighter and still has a long way to go before he is among the top of the division. Is Ortiz still a force in the 205 division? No. But he is still good enough to beat Hamill. Ortiz was the coach for Matt Hamill in Season 3 of the Ultimate Fighter reality series. He took Hamill under his wings and trained with him. At that time Hamill was a raw talent and I still think he is a raw talent that Ortiz can expose. Since he coached him, he will know the strengths and weaknesses of Hamill. Everyone talks about how good Hamill’s wrestling is. Yes he was a three-time NCAA Division III National Champion in wrestling (167 lb class in 1997, 190 lb class in 1998 and 197 lb class in 1999) while attending the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in Rochester, New York. Hamill was also won a gold medal at the 2001 Rome Freestyle Wrestling and a Silver in Rome Greco-Roman at the Deaflympics. It is a great accomplishment but lets be honest, these are the Deaflympics and does not have any where near the competition that the real Olympics has. Ortiz has a good wrestling pedigree as well. Under coach Paul Herrera, Ortiz finished fourth in the state high school championships as a senior and won a California state junior college title for Golden West College. He than wrestled at Cal State Bakersfield and trained with future NCAA World and Super Bowl champion Stephen Neal. Though Hamill has a better resume for wrestling than Ortiz, Tito is a very good and powerful wrestler that can make Hamill with technique and strength. I don’t think either fighter has the wresting advantage but I think Ortiz’s MMA wrestling experience will shine through in this fight. Oritz know show to use his wrestling and adapting it grappling and adapting it to mixed martial arts. Ortiz has had fights as a submission wrestler and in 2000, competed in the Abu Dhabi Submission Wrestling tournament, in the under 99 kg division. He finished in third place after winning 4 fights before losing in the semi-final by decision to Ricardo Arona. During the tournament he defeated Matt Hughes, Mike van Arsdale, Rumina Sato and Rostyslav Borysenko. Hamill has never used his wrestling to MMA. He has not used his wrestling in any of his fights. Hamill likes to strikes and keep the fight standing and does not like to shoot in for the take down. Striking wise Ortiz has much better technical striking. Hamill is more powerful and throws harder punches but he is a chucker. He has little striking technique and likes to throw looping wild punches. Ortiz has good form and always keeps both his hands up and chin down. He can see the looping punches and deflect them. Though Hamill has more power I think he will not be able to KO Ortiz as he will use his technique to not get hit. Ortiz has only been KO twice by Chuck Liddell and Hamill is no where near as good a striker as Liddell. Lyoto Machida, Vitor Belfort and Rashad Evans could not KO Ortiz and they are top level fighters so what makes you think Hamill can. I like Ortiz to avoid the strikes and get the take down. Once he gets the take down he will gain top position and elbow Hamill till the ref stops the fight. Once Hamill gets taken down he does not have a good guard game. He likes to stay in the guard and hold on. He does not have active hips and not very active on his back. In his fight with Jon Jones he could not get out of his guard and he was subject to many blows before the ref stooped the fight. If Hamill gets guard will not be able to use his hips to get out and Ortiz will punish him. Bottom Line: Yes Hamill has won his last two fight but he should have lost both of them. He was getting just dominated by Jon Jones at The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale and was badly hurt but Jones lost the fight because of illegal elbows. At no time in that fight was Hamill ever in it. In his last fight at The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs. Team Ortiz Finale versus Keith Jardine he also won the fight, but shouldn’t have. Jardine was deducted a point for accidentally poking Hamill in the eye in Round 2. If he was not deducted that point he would have lost. Ortiz last four opponents were Forrest Griffin where he lost a close spit decision, Lyoto Machida where he almost subbed him at the end of the fight, Rashad Evans which was a draw and a KO loss to Chuck Liddell. All four of his last fights were against former UFC champions. Hamil has never even come close to fighting a 205 pound champion. His only high profile fight was versus Rick Franklin where Franklin dominated and punished him. I really don’t know why Ortiz is the online sports book money line underdog. He is a former UFC champion, a high level grappler and has not fought an easy fight in his career. Hamill has never fought a top level guy and when he doe she loses. To me +130 is a great underdog bet and you are getting good value for this bet and I would recommend a large bet. Ortiz may have been off due to surgery but he is a tireless trainer and will be in shape for this fight. There is no doubt in my mind that Ortiz will show up and put on a good show versus Hamill who is still not developed a well rounded MMA game. Look for Ortiz to KO Hamill with a Vicious Ground and Pound Second Round VictoryBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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