UFC 120: Bisping vs. Akiyama
October 16, 2010
Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit
UFC Betting Pick: Carlos Condit (+135)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Sportsbook.com
Welterweight bout: Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy (-165) vs. Carlos "Natural Born Killer" Condit (+135)
I really think that Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (23-7) is one of he most overrated fighters in the UFC 170 pound welterweight division. He got a premature title shot with Georges St. Pierre at UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy.
In that title fight he was severely overmatched in that fight and realistically he is years away from a title shot. He will be fighting a well rounded mixed martial arts fighter in Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit (25-5) e has a lot of holes in his game aHe who is by far a much better fighting in all areas of MMA.
Condit is the former World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) welterweight champion and also competed for Pancrase with notable wins over Frank Trigg, Brock Larson, and Renato Verissimo. Condit recently changed camps and now trains at Jackson's Submission Fighting which is the best MMA camp in the world while Hardy trains in England with Team Rough House which is a sub standard MMA camp at best.
Team Rough House is full of rising stars in MMA who are very rough around the edges. The team is comprised of C+ level fighters at best while Jackson's Submission Fighting is full of top quality MMA fighters to push Condit like UFC Welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Rashad Evans, former 7-time King of Pancrase Nate Marquardt, former UFC Interim Heavyweight champion Shane Carwin, Diego Sanchez, Keith Jardine, Joey Villasenor, Jon Jones, Roger Huerta, Donald Cerrone, Leonard Garcia, Joe Stevenson and Yoshihiro Akiyama.
Jackson's camp has a win percentage of 81% of their fights and header instructor Greg Jackson won two World MMA Awards for "Best Coach" and "Best Gym" was named the 9th most powerful man in MMA in 2009. Team Rough House on the other hand is full of pub brawlers and soccer hooligans with a limited range of MMA skills other than striking.
Condit gets to roll and train with the cream of the crop in MMA while Hardy rolls with average fighters at best like Dan Hardy, Paul Daley, Ross Pearson, Andre Winner, Dean Amasinger and Nick Osipczak at Team Rough House. Which MMA camp would you rather train at?
Rough House was established in the early 1990s by Paul Daley and Matt Howell. They competed in one of the United Kingdoms first MMA events where they met Dan Hardy and coach Nathan Leverton. After Daley and Howell had great success on the amateur circuit, they made regular visits to the United States to seek out the better training. Soon Andre Winner, Jim Wallhead and Dean Amasinger joined. First Daley is average at best and if hey are running the team who is there to push and make Hardy better. No one.
The only advantage that Hardy has is his power and striking. Most people would think that he is much better than Condit but not as much as you would think. Out of his 25 wins Conduit has 11 knockouts. He may have a slender build but he has some power behind his hands. Yes hardy is the more powerful striker and has the ability to KO most fighters but he is a wild striker with little technique. Technically Conduit has much better technique and if you look at his record he has never been KO’ed in his career.
Since fighting in the UFC, Hardy only has 1 KO which means when he fights in the UFC or bigger shows his power is not as dominate as his record shows. Sure he was KO’ing guys but that was in smaller shows with much less talented people.
Don’t despite what the UFC marketing machine says Hardy is not the power striker that they make him out to be. Hardy has had to refine his striking The Wildcard Boxing Gym with Freddie Roach and that has improved his technique a bit but not to the level where it should be. When he fights MMA he is a wild puncher and likes to go for the Hell Mary overhand punch. Fighting a technical striker like Condit, he will be able to see this over hand punch miles away.
Condit will yes his speed and technique to move in and out in the strikes. He will come in do damage and get out quickly. I expect Condit to pepper and throw Hardy off his game with his strikes.
Grappling wise I highly suspect Hardy’s skills. He is stated as being a brown belt in Brazilian Jiujitsu. First who is Hardy’s BJJ instructor? He has not been fighting that long to even be a brown belt. When he trained with Matt Serra, Serra had to show him the very basics of grappling like wresting switches that he has no idea about. I would rate his BJJ skills as blue belt at best. Hardy is no where near brown belt level and his belt is very much inflated of was given to him by a McDojo. Sure he has worked grappling with Eddie Bravo but Bravo’s style is not for everyone and full of intricate moves that are not easy to master. He is not a full time Bravo student so his little time training with him will not evolve his skills.
On the ground Condit is very skillful. He does not claim to be a BJJ black belt and he has no ranking but he does not try to inflate his skills with a belt he does not deserve. Out of his 25 MMA wins he has 13 by submission. He has won by triangle choke, arm bars, kimuras, and rear naked choke which shows he can win from anywhere. Hardy only has 4 submissions and his grappling is very sloppy.
Bottom Line: Condit is one of the most aggressive and game fighters in MMA. He has endless energy, a solid chin, great grappling and very aggressive when he fights. He will overwhelm Hardy with pressure and skill and Hardy will start to gas out due to the constant pressure.
Hardy is not a finisher as all but one of his fight in the UFC has gone to a decision and tow of them went to a split decision.
Sports betting wise there should be no way Condit should be an underdog. This is a great underdog bet to make on a former champion with well rounded skills. His pressure and talent will overwhelm Hardy and I would recommend betting very heavily on Condit to pick apart Hardy.
Look for Condit to Submit Hardy in the Second Round with a Rear Naked Choke.
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