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UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2
August 28, 2010
Randy Couture vs. James Toney
UFC Betting Pick: Randy Couture (-575)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetOnline
Heavyweight bout: Randy "The Natural" (-575) Couture vs. James "Lights Out" Toney (-375)
Surprise, surprise—Dana White regrets signing James Toney. Though this “freak show fight” will bring a lot of attention to the UFC, you have to call a spade, a spade and this is a mixed martial arts bout. James Toney may be one of the best boxers in history and is no doubt a future boxing hall of famer, but he has no MMA experience and will be extremely outmatched by UFC living legend Randy “The Natural” Couture (18-10).
The sports betting lines for this fight are huge and I would bet the farm that Couture is going to make Toney look silly. When it comes to boxing versus MMA, a MMA fighter will win 99% of the time. The only good thing about this fight is that it will prove once and for all that MMA requires much more skill than boxing and is a vastly more difficult sport.
There is absolutely no chance that Toney will be able to take Couture in this fight—he has no grappling experience, no kickboxing experience and no wrestling experience. Toney has spent his life perfecting his boxing which unfortunately for him, does not translate into MMA whatsoever—the positioning, the stance and the movements are absolutely different in the two sports.
A boxer stands in a position to avoid getting hit. Shoulders are turned in to deflect oncoming punches and legs are out front to protect the body. From a MMA point of view a boxing-like stance is considered to be extremely vulnerable as the front leg is firmly planted on the ground way too far in front, making it very easy for takedowns. A boxer always has his hands up and chin down.
This is also good in MMA but a boxer has this ingrained in his being and is taught to overcome any reflex reaction to lower his hands—how will he be able to check a low leg kick, defend against a wrestling shot, fend off a choke or submission etc if his hands are “fixated”? Perhaps a younger boxer with less experience would be able to translate his boxing skills into some sort of MMA talent but at 41 years of age, it is highly unlikely Toney will be able to—in other words, you cannot teach an old dog new tricks.
It is true that Toney is the better boxer of the two and if this was strictly a boxing match Toney would be able to KO Couture in no time, however, this is a MMA match and Toney will not be able to cut the ring down nor land a decent punch as he will be too concerned with avoiding a takedown. Couture is a high caliber wrestler and once he takes Toney down, he will stay down.
Couture is a three-time Olympic team alternate (1988, 1992 and 1996); a semifinalist at the 2000 Olympic Trials; a three-time National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division-I All-American; and a two-time NCAA Division-I runner-up at Oklahoma State University. It is next to impossible for Toney to learn within the span of a few short months, how to defend against an Olympic caliber wrestler. By the way, in his past matches Couture has also displayed some knowledge of boxing in Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but enough said.
Though Toney has enlisted the help of Juanito Ibarra to oversee his MMA training, perhaps Ibarra may not be the best choice in this case. Best known for his work with Oscar de la Hoya and Rampage Jackson, Toney should have sought the help of someone better known for their expertise in MMA rather than boxing.
Realistically the only thing Ibarra will be able to teach Toney is how to open up his striking and apply it in a MMA venue. Any form of MMA defense most likely will be overlooked as Ibarra is all about striking—proof is in the one dimensional game of Rampage Jackson. Even if he was to work with a MMA trainer it is highly unlikely Toney would be able to learn enough tricks of the trade to even last one round in the octagon.
The over-under is less than one round with most online sports books and training with Ibarra means this will be an under prop bet.
Bottom Line: Both fighters are legends in their respective sport. It is likely that Couture would have some game in a boxing ring, however, the same cannot be said about Toney in a MMA octagon—MMA is a highly complex sport and Toney just does not have the proper training to be able to process and react quickly enough in such a venue.
Without any real MMA experience and significant training in a full-body contact sport, there is no way really that Toney will be able to get out of the first round. Once he is pinned against the cage Couture will take him down with ease and on the ground, it is unlikely Toney will be able to get out of any hold Couture has on him.
Expect to see Couture cautious of Toney at first while he is gauging distance and sizing up his opponent. Once he realizes that despite his MMA training Toney still has his left leg too far forward, Couture will trip him up and take him to the ground. Once on the ground Couture will ground and pound with Toney clueless as to how to ward off his opponent. He will turtle until the ref calls the fight late in the first round.
The UFC betting odds are way too large for this match up and I would recommend a UFC prop bet for this fight not to get out of the first round.
Look for the Ref to Mercifully Stop this Fight in the First Round to Stop the Vicious Ground and Pound
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