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UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2
August 28, 2010
Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
UFC Betting Pick: Kenny Florian (-145)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Sportsbook.com
Lightweight bout: Kenny "Ken Flo" Florian (-145) vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard (+115)
Kenny “Ken Flo” Florain (14-4) has come a long way since he first appeared on the Ultimate Fighter reality show. He has evolved into a top lightweight contender and one of the best in the division. He has always been a great grappler who has sought to improve the other aspects of his game. Given this, he should have no problem when he steps into the octagon to face Gray “The Bully” Maynard (9-0).
Maynard is on “ok” fighter at best who thinks he is better than he actually is. He has been calling for a title shot for some time now but even his coach, Randy Couture, does not believe he currently has the skills to fight for the title. Maynard is called “The Bully”, however, he definitely does not live up to his name. Though currently undefeated, realistically he just squeaks out victories. Of his nine MMA fights, seven of them have come by decision—this means Maynard does not have the striking skills to put away opponents nor does he the grappling skills to submit them either.
The only way he can win a fight is through hard work. Though this is a good trait to have, hard work will only get a fighter so far—at some point skill is required, especially if you want to be a serious contender.
Maynard is definitely the dominant of the two when it comes to wrestling, however, not by all that much.
Redshirted in his freshman year at Michigan State University, Maynard counts former UFC light heavyweight champion, Rashad Evans, as a former teammate. Placing eighth at the NCAA Division I Collegiate Wrestling Championship at the 157 lb weight class the following year, he was able to improve and maintain his standing of seventh place the two years after that earning him the MSU co-captain All-American honors. Upon graduation, Maynard ranked eleventh all-time in MSU history with 106 career wins and seventh with 26 falls.
Florian has worked hard on his wrestling of late and has decent results to show for it. He journeyed to Montreal Canada to train with Firas Zahabi at Tri Star, the home gym of Georges St-Pierre, where he took the opportunity to hone his skills against one of the most dominant wresters in MMA.
St-Pierre has been known to take NCAA and olympic caliber wresters and no doubt, some of these skills have transferred onto Florian. Not only will Florian be able to ward off any shot attempts made by Maynard, he will also have the skills to take him down.
When it comes to striking Maynard only has one move—he ducks his head and swings for the fence with the over-hand right. Maynard has very little technique and is basically a chucker. Florian on the other hand has worked a lot on his striking and is now considered to be one of the most technical strikers in his division. Because of his Muay Thai training in Thailand, he also has very good elbows and kicks.
If this fight stays standing, Florian will pick Maynard apart with his technique. As Maynard needs to close the distance and score takedown points, Florian will attempt to stay on the outside and hit him with jabs and straight right hands. When Maynard goes for the shot, he will be caught with knees.
Florian is an accomplished grappler who earned his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Professor Roberto Maia of Boston Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Gracie Barra. He has a great back game and active hips and has the ability to submit. Florian currently has ten submission victories over top level fighters such as Joe Stevenson at UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar, Clay Guida at UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez, and Takanori Gomi at UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi.
Maynard on the other hand does not have the submission skills of his opponent and relies heavily on the ground and pound. Though he is not ranked, Maynard is perhaps at the level of a blue belt at best. His grappling is not very tight and he does not have the base nor the skills to compete on the ground with Florian.
Bottom Line: Maynard is an one dimensional fighter with a good heart who will have difficulty with a competitor of more skill. He is almost outmatched in every category when compared to Florian—he will get picked apart in the stand up and he will get outclassed on the ground.
It is more than likely Maynard will not be able to handle the strikes and will attempt to go for the takedown. From there Florian will sprawl and take Maynard’s back where he will apply and get the rear naked choke. Once Florian gets the back he is very hard to shake off—of his last four fights, three have been won by rear naked choke.
The sports betting UFC odds have Florian as a slight favorite at -145. Personally I would have made him a -200 or -250 money line favorite, so in my humble opinion, this is a great fight to bet on. If it is available, a UFC prop bet for Florian to win by submission is also recommended.
Look for Florian to Win with a Second Round Submission Victory
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