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Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (+250) vs. B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn (-325)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2
August 28, 2010
Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn
UFC Betting Pick: BJ Penn (-375)

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Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (+250) vs. B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn (-325)

The last time these two fighters met in an octagon was at UFC 112: Invincible and if it was up to me, I would have given the decision to Penn. Even though Penn was the better fighter and scored more points, being more active and aggressive won the UFC 155 pound lightweight title for Edgar.

This upset victory was one of the largest betting underdog plays to hit the mark and with UFC 118 being the rematch, Penn is more than motivated to win his title back, which is not a good thing for Edgar. A lazy and unmotivated Penn can be beat, but a Penn that is determined and focused and who has put in the time and toil necessary to be a champion again is very dangerous.

The first fight went to Edgar because his unrelenting onslaught controlled the pace of the fight, but Penn will be prepared this time for his pressure fighting and will not be caught off guard again. The consenus does not believe Edgar can pull off another victory against one of the top pound for pound fighters and has him at +250 even though he has already won against Penn.


Though he is a decent fighter, Edgar really should not be fighting in the 155 pound division—he is on the smaller size and would do well in the 145 pound division if there was one. I am thinking he would really shine in the WEC if he chose to make that move.

Penn on the other hand is a better all-around fighter. He has great technical striking and is a grappling expert. He is also a bigger and smarter fighter than can fight from all areas. Edgar has the tenacity and the wrestling ability but the only way he can emerge victorious is by getting the takedowns for points. As Penn has first hand experience with Edgar, it is unlikely there will be any surprises this time around.

When it comes to striking, Penn has the edge. Edgar tends to throw wide looping over-hand punches as he is too small to land jabs or close contact hits. Given this, Penn will be able to back away and stay outside his shot range but still be able to use his technical striking ability to land jabs and straight rights on any oncoming shot attempts.

If Edgar manages to get the single leg on Penn, he will find that Penn has such great balance and dexterity that it is unlikely he will go down. Fighters who have been able to catch Penn unguarded have had the nasty surprise of being bodily wrapped by his free leg while he balances on his other. If Penn does go down, Edgar will be in for a fight as Penn is by far the dominate one—he has one of the hardest guards to pass and if Penn is able to gain top position, this fight will be over.

When it comes to grappling, Penn definitely has game. He began his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu training under Ralph Gracie in 1997 and eventually earned his purple belt from the master. He went on to study at Nova União where he was awarded his black belt in 2000 by Andre Pederneiras. Edgar has nowhere near the training nor experience on the ground and because of his slight frame, his bottom game is hampered—the only real chance he has is to hold top position for a ground and pound.

After his loss at UFC 112, Penn tried to quiet his critics by stating he did not feel quite right in the octagon and a report came from his camp shortly thereafter saying he was battling a sinus infection and was taking anti-biotics. Though this may or may not be true, if Penn was in fact battling a sinus infection this might explain his lack of late round conditioning.

Bottom Line: In their first fight Edgar became the first lightweight fighter to takedown Penn. During their bout he circled and jumped in with quick jabs to earn himself the win. It is highly unlikely he will be able to close the distance this time round as not only is Penn determined to win back his title, he also knows exactly what Edgar will be bringing to the octagon.

Edgar needs to concern himself with Penn’s ground game as that is where he could really be caught. Since coming to the UFC Edgar has only submitted one opponent—Matt Veach at UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale and has only KO’ed one fighter—Mark Bocek at UFC 73: Stacked. Neither of these warriors are at the same level as Penn and if we did not see a submission or KO from Edgar the first time, it is unlikely we will see one this time either.

Penn needs redemption and will be aiming to dominate and put Edgar away to prove once and for all the first fight was a fluke. I can see Penn keeping his distance in this one all the while gauging the speedy Edgar. He will eventually hit Edgar with a jab cross that will send him to the ground where Penn will put this one away. If you had bet on Edgar the first time around you netted yourself a huge payday—this will not happen again.

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