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UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen
August 7, 2010 7 PM
Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida
UFC Betting Pick: Ricardo Almeida (-170)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetCRIS
Welterweight Bout Matt Hughes (+140) vs Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida (-170)
Matt Hughes (44 - 7) barely beat Renzo Gracie in his last fight at UFC 112 – Invincible. He was able to KO the BJJ legend late in the third round with 20 seconds left. Well Renzo was 42 at the time and well past his prime fighting career and it took that long for Hughes to dispose of him.
This mixed martial arts fight, he won’t be so lucky as Hughes will not take on Gracie’s student in Ricardo "Cachorrao" Almeida (12-3) who will want revenge for not only his instructors lose but his lose to Hughes at the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship where Hughes beat Almeida in 2000. Almeida is only 33 years old and in the prime in his fighting career.
Almeida, who looks to avenge his mentor's loss, goes for his fourth consecutive win in the UFC with recent wins over Matt Horwich at UFC - Fight Night 18 and Kendall Grove at UFC 101 - Declaration and the submission victory over Matt Brown at UFC 111 - St. Pierre vs. Hardy in March.
Hughes, meanwhile, quietly has moved back into title contention. After losing his long-held welterweight title during a tough 1-3 stretch, he's since rebounded for a close decision win over Matt Serra and the TKO victory over Gracie.
Hughes was once considered the greatest welterweight in the world but time has caught up with him and he is not longer the fighter he once was. Hughes does not have the skill to compete with today’s MMA fighter and it shows. He has zero striking skills and little power. He still has great wrestling but it will be nullified by the excellent ground game of Almeida.
Striking wise neither fighter is a great striker but Almeida does have better technical skills standing up and has fought tougher opponents who have great striking power and they could not KO Almeida.
Hughes on the other hand has very weak striking and has trouble with strong strikers. To counter Matt Hughes like to switch his stance and fight in the south paw stance so he can get the takedown. He has down this throughout his career and that has been effective for the takedown but it has really hindered his striking game. If there is an edge to this striking battle I would give a slight edge to Almeida who is bigger and has slightly better technical skills.
Wrestling wise Matt Hughes is the better fighter. Hughes was a two-time 145 lb IHSA (Illinois High School Association) Class A state wrestling champion. He won in 1991 and 1992 while attending Hillsboro (IL) High School. Furthermore, Hughes is a two-time Division I All-American wrestler, with an 8th and a 5th place finish in the 158 lb division.
Hughes has competed in the prestigious ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship, in which he held a record of 2–2. This consists of wins over Ricardo Almeida and Jeremy Horn, and losses to Jeff Monson and Tito Ortiz.
If this fight was 3 years ago Hughes would have beat Almeida but this in 2010 and Hughes is slower and less dominate of a fighter than he once was. Even though Hughes beat Almeida years ago at the ADCC Almeida is still a much better grappler on the ground with much tighter and better technique. Almeida has very good base and technical skills on the ground and he will be able to overwhelm Hughes in this fight.
At this point in his career Hughes is not as explosive as he once was. He use to be able to use his speed to shoot in and take his opponent down and ground and pound out his opponent. Now that Hughes is older he shoots are no longer lightning quick and Almeida will be able foresee Hughes’ attacks.
Not only will Almeida will be able to see Hughes shoot attempt he will be able to counter with punches or be able to sprawl and attack Hughes from the top in grappling. Since Hughes wrestling has slowed downed Almeida will be to gain top position.
On the ground once Almeida gets Hughes to the ground he will be able to control him on the ground with superior base and tightness. Almeida is a bigger fighter and is generally a middleweight fighter. Now that he has moved down to the UFC 170 pound welterweight division he will be much bigger than Hughes. Hughes is going to have a tough time with his size.
Just look at Almeida’s grappling accomplishments. On the ground he is much better than Hughes.
ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship
- ADCC 2003 88–98 kg: 4th place
- ADCC 2001 88–98 kg: 2nd place Openweight: 4th place
- ADCC 2000 Openweight: 3rd place
- ADCC 1999 88–98 kg: 3rd place
- ADCC 1998 88–98 kg: 2nd place
CBJJ Pan American Championships
- 1999 Brown Belt pesado: 1st Place
- CBJJ Brazilian Championships
- 1997 Brown Belt Pesado: 1st Place
- 1996 Purple Belt Médio: 1st Place Purple Belt Open Weight: 3rd Place
Bottom Line: Almeida is younger, bigger and faster than Hughes who is nowhere near the fighter he once was.
The UFC betting lines for this fight are perfect. Almeida opened up as the online sportsbook betting favorite at -170 and I would lay a fair amount on Almeida to beast Hughes. Hughes just doesn’t have the striking to hurt Almeida, the grappling to submit Almeida and has lost his speed and power from wrestling. This is perfect fight to wager on as Hughes is just too old and I would be a lot on this fight.
One online bet I would make is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance. As stated, Hughes has lost his edge and skills as a MMA fighter. But if you look at Almeida he is no world beater as well. He is a decision fighter and 7 out of his last 10 fights have come by decision.
Neither fighter has the power to put each other away so this fight will go to the judges. For this fight bet on the money line for a Almeida victory, bet the UFC prop bet on this fight to go the distance and bet on Almeida to win by decision.
Look for Almeida to Avenge Renzo with a Unanimous Decision Victory.
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