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UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen
August 7, 2010 7 PM
Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
UFC Betting Pick: Jon Fitch (-180)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Sportsbook.com
Welterweight Bout Matt Jon Fitch (-180) vs Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves (-125)
This rematch has been a long time coming. The on-again, off-again rematch between Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch (22-3), first scheduled for UFC 107 then UFC 111 and then UFC 115 was moved again, to UFC 117. Finally these two mixed martial arts fighters will have their long awaited rematch.
Alves suffered a knee injury, forcing him to withdraw originally in December 2009. Alves was then scheduled to face Fitch on March 27, 2010 at UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy. However, on March 25th, Alves was taken off the card due to the discovery of an arteriovenous malformation in the brain from a pre fight CAT scan. Alves has had corrective surgery on March 31, 2010 and is expected to fight at UFC 117.
To be honest I don’t think Alves is ready to fight and needs more time especially with a illness that is connected to his brain. An Alves that is 100% healthy would not be able to beat Fitch. To me Fitch is heads and tails the second best fighter in the UFC 170 pound division. Georges St Pierre is heads and tails above everyone and next down the list is Fitch who is much better than the rest of the guys.
I have no idea why the online sportsbook have Alves as the online betting favorite at -125. I would have reversed the UFC odds and have Fitch at -125, so to me this fight is a steal. Remember these two MMA fighters already fought at Ultimate Fight Night 5 where Alves was matched up against fellow up-and-comer Jon Fitch where Fitch defeated Alves by TKO with a successful upkick to the head of Alves at 4:37 of the second round.
So why is Alves the UFC sports betting odds makers betting favorite now? I have no idea.
Since beating Alves the first time, Fitch has beaten all fighters with the only lose to current champion Georges St Pierre. In that fight with GSP, he was hit with everything. And no matter how hard he was hit Fitch kept on getting up and fighting. This is something that you cannot teach a MMA fighter and that is heart.
Fitch has so much heart and will fight to the end and that is the difference between him and Alves. The reason why Alves is the favorite is because of his power. Yes Alves has power and has KO’ed 5 out of his last 8 opponents since losing to Fitch but I don’t think Alves scan KO Fitch who will be faster and has the heart and smarts to fight on.
There is so much fight in Fitch and I don’t see Alves who will have a lot of ring rust being able to KO Fitch. By the tie these two fighter meet up Alves will have not fought in over a year and he will not have the cardio to keep up with Fitch who is known to have great conditioning.
Alves has been known to not work and train hard. Now with the added lay off his cardio will be severely tested. Fitch is a cardio king and fights all out and never get tired. He will test the cardio and mental ability of Alves and he will break Alves in this fight.
Alves has problems with wrestlers. He is a standup fighter that likes to knock guys out. Fitch was a member of the Purdue wrestling team, a four-year letterman and wrestled under the tutelage of Tom Erikson and eventually became the team captain of his wrestling squad.
Fitch has the skill to take down Alves and get the takedown points. Alves has worked a lot on his sprawl defense but Fitch is an expert takedown artist and he will do the same thing that GSP did to Alves. St Pierre was able to take down Alves at will. Though Alves showed he could get back up he could not stop the nonstop takedowns. Fitch will do the exact same thing as GSP did. He will be able to do the single or double leg takedown for the take down points.
Striking wise Alves is a much better striker. He has a lot of power and has 10 KO’s out of his 16 victories. However, Fitch has the heart and head to take the shots and has only been KO once in his career. That was early on in his career against a much heavier Wilson Gouveia. Since then he has fought many tough strikers who could KO him like Diego Sanchez, Luigi Fioravanti, Shonie Carter, Paulo Thiago, Mike Pierce, Josh Burkman and Brock Larson.
One aspect that might turn this fight in Fitch’s favor is grappling. You would think being Brazilian Alves would be the better grappler. However, Alves rarely works on his grappling game and is only a purple belt. Fitch on the other hand is a black belt in Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu under Dave Camarillo from the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) who was taught by the famous and notoriously tough Ralph Gracie. Fitch has very good ground skills and can use his wrestling base to hold Alves down and jiu-jitsu skills to apply submissions.
Bottom Line: Alves couldn’t beat Fitch the first time and both fighters have improved at the same time. Alves will have cardio problems, ruing rust and a poor game plan going into this fight. I don’t see Alves being able to KO Fitch and after the first round Alves will gas out and that’s when Fitch will turn the fight in his favor.
Not only will Fitch win this fight but he will control the ground game with his superior takedowns.
In addition to Fitch winning this fight, also do a UFC prop bet on this fight to go to a decision. Fitch is a cardio machine and his last 7 fights have all gone to a decision. He is a work horse that out fights his opponents and pulls out victories while Alves’ last two fights have got to a decision.
Bet o n Fitch to Out work the Out of Shape Alves for an Unanimous Decision Victory
Bet
on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates
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