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Brock Lesnar (-185) vs Shane "The Engineer" Carwin (+150)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin
July 3, 2010 7 PM
Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin
UFC Betting Pick: Shane Carwin (+150)

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Heavyweight Championship bout Brock Lesnar (-185) vs Shane "The Engineer" Carwin (+150)

Shane “The Engineer” Carwin (12-0) won the Interim UFC heavyweight championship by defeating Frank Mir at UFC 111 and will now fight WWE and current heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar (5-1), who has just recovered from a serious case of diverticulitis, an intestinal disorder which required surgery.

There are no more excuses as the two best heavyweights in the UFC will battle it out and ultimately unite the heavy title, however, the question remains as to who will win the fight—the answer is Shane Carwin.

Brock Lesnar is huge and powerful and not to mention the largest heavyweight in the UFC and one must admit his last couple of wins were impressive—he dismantled Frank Mir at UFC 100 and KO’ed Randy Couture at UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar. However, one needs to really examine how he won these fights before judgment is ultimately passed. In both these bouts Lesnar used his wresting skills coupled with his size and speed to take his opponents down—it is unlikely he will be able to accomplish this against Carwin.  

In his first eight fights alone, Carwin won by first round stoppage and was the Ring of Fire heavyweight champion before signing with the UFC, not to mention he is also with the most reputable MMA club around—Jackson's Submission Fighting as well as with Grudge Fight Team. When it comes to sheer brute strength, Carwin is just as strong as Lesnar and his wresting skills are comparable.


In other words, Carwin is basically an ever so slightly smaller Lesnar but with more MMA skill. In college Carwin was the two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight (1996–97) and the NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999. He was also a two-time All-American in football for Western State and is currently a volunteer wrestling coach for the University of Northern Colorado. So when it comes to wrestling Carwin can more than keep up, if not surpass Lesnar. Lesnar has always relied on his size and strength to take his opponents but what will happen when he cannot?

Up until now, no one has been able to avoid Lesnar’s takedowns because of his size and sheer strength—Mir was not able to do so, twice, and Couture was only able to hold him off for a short time during their bout. Carwin is known to be just as strong as Lesnar and should be able to match power for power versus the WWE star. When his size and strength fails to down Carwin, it is likely Lesnar will try to turn this fight into a striking war of which Carwin is the superior on his feet.


Though both fighters are powerful strikers, Carwin is able to combine his strong blows with technique. Lennar has the tendency to “push” his punches in that he leans too far forward which makes him vulnerable to his opponent’s counter attack. Lesner has yet to face such a physically strong striker—Mir and Couture could not match him blow for blow, nor could Heath Herring. He is accustomed to being the physically dominant one in his matches and when this fails, Lesner has very little to fall back on.

Carwin has six knock outs victories in a row and in all of his twelve MMA fights, not one has gone beyond the first round. Carwin has brutal KO power and Lesnar will not be able to bully Carwin like he has his other opponents. If this fights goes to a clinch, Carwin has the necessary strength to pin Lesnar to the cage and hold him there. Once he has him cornered, Carwin will unleash powerful upper cuts to end this fight. If Lesnar is able to pin Carwin, Carwin has the size, strength and wrestling skills to avoid a take down.

Bottom Line: Everyone talks about the size of Lennar’s hands and how he needs to have custom gloves made for his paws. Carwin too has some huge mitts and is the only fighter in the UFC to ever wear size 5xl gloves. Standing at 6’2” and 265 lbs, Carwin is a physical match for the 6’3”, 265 lbs Lesner. Lesnar has never met up with such a large and skilled opponent in the octagon before and he will not know what hit him. It is likely Lesnar will go for a shot of which Carwin will be able to defend and keep this fight standing. Carwin will win the clinch game and hit Lesnar with shots like he has never felt before.

When it comes to UFC betting, Lesnar is a fairly big favorite with all the online sportsbooks. Remember, this is his first fight in over a year and he has had major surgery which has kept him from training until just recently. One other intangible is that Carwin trains with the best MMA camp in the world—Jackson’s Fighting Submission and Greg Jackson will have formulated a feasible game plan for Carwin to execute in order to break down Lesnar.

Lesnar will finally get a taste of his own medicine as Carwin is just too big and strong for him to take down. Once his game plan is foiled, Lesner will not be able to rely on his technical fighting skills to win his battle as they are close to non-existent.


Carwin will pin Lesner against the cage and pound him out. One must not forget we do not know if Lesnar has a chin as he has not been hit before—I suspect he does not. It is likely once he is tagged by Carwin, he will go down.

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