UFC Betting - UFC Betting Lines - UFC Predictions - UFC Odds - UFC Matchups - UFC Wagering Lines - Wager on the UFC
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
| MMA Fighting Matchups | ||||
Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (-190) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (+150)by Stan Leung |
||||
|
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (-190) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (+150) In my first time around handicapping this fight I predicted that Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-4) would win this fight. I should have collected my money as I was bang on in my handicapping analysis. There is no doubt that Shogun won the first fight. Fightmetric analysis of the fight showed that Shogun had been more destructive and landed more strikes to the head and to the legs than Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (16-0) did. According to CompuStrike, Rua landed almost twice as many strikes as Machida did in the fight overall. In my first prediction for this fight I stated Rua has great Muay Thai kicks and uses his lower legs kicks to set up his strikes. Muay Thai is a better from of striking when compared to karate as the kicks in Muay Thai are short and very powerful and do not require a huge wind up. Machida uses a unique style that combines elements from his diverse training--he has a good fighting stance for point scoring which he has translated and adapted to mixed martial arts very well. This fight will be slow as both combatants will be very tentative. In a karate versus Muay Thai fight the karate fighter leans back and tries not to get hit. He waits for his opportunity and will only strike his opponent when he is vulnerable. But a Muay Thai fighter does not lose his position as their kicks are short and quick. Point to note—that is why there are more Muay Thai fighters in MMA than karate fighters. http://www.fighting-mma.com/mma-matchups/2009/ufc-104-lyoto-machida-mauricio-rua.php I still think Shogun will win this fight because he has already fought Machida and his elusive fighting style will not be as confusing this time around. Machida is the most elusive fighter in the UFC and his striking is very confusing to most fighters. He is able to confuse and throw of a fighter’s game but since they just fought, Shogun will not be surprised by his striking or weird fighting stance. Shogun fought a good fight last time but since he is more familiar with Machida there will be no surprises in this fight. Shogun will be more prepared and in perfect fight shape. His first fight in the UFC he fought Forrest Griffin at UFC 76: Knockout. In that fight he was injured and not prepared for the UFC. After battling injuries he came back to the UFC to fight Mark Coleman at UFC 93: Franklin vs. Henderson where he was no in fight shape and was sucking back wind just to continue to fight. His next fight was against Chuck Liddell at UFC 97: Redemption where the old Shogun looked like he was finally injury free and in fight shape. Now in his rematch with Machida he will be in the best shape since he was in Pride and injury free. The element of surprise is over and Shogun will be even more ready and prepared for the fight which is a bad thing for the UFC Light Heavyweight champion. Like I said in my past matchup analysis, Shogun is the better striker. He has more power and his strikes get quicker to the opponent than Machida’s strikes can. Muay Thai is the best form of striking for mixed martial arts because the kicks are designed for quick violent bursts to get to an opponent quickly. You can generate a lot of power and less wind up motion than kickboxing, Tai Kwon Do or karate and that is why it is more effective. Shogun is a Muay Thai fighter and Machida is a karate fighter. His kicks won’t get to Shogun as fast as Shogun kicks and that is the difference in the first fight and in this title fight. You saw in the first fight Shogun was quicker to the kicks and he was able to get his strikes to Machida who could not move fast enough. That is the effectiveness of Muay Thai and why it is much better to practice Muay Thai instead of karate. Machida has received both praise and criticism for back-peddling in his fights while winning on points. His striking is unique but it is not violent like Shogun’s is. Machida can dance around all he wants but when Shogun hits him he will get hurt. When Machida hits Shogun it is neither as devastating nor powerful as Shogun is. Also in Muay Thai they check kicks. This means when a person is about to kick you raise your leg and block the kick with your shin. Once you block with you can than punch. In karate you don’t block kicks with your legs and Shogun will be able to check Machida’s kicks and land the straight right hand. Machida won’t be able to block Shoguns kicks and will get softened up. Grappling wise, both fighters are good on the ground as each fighter has a black belt in jiu-jitsu. However, Shogun is way more comfortable on ground and likes to fight on the ground. The ground for Machida is a last resort. Shogun likes to go for legs locks and has very mobile hips. Machida is loose on the ground. I always go back to the fight with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79: Nemesis. It took him 3 tries before he was able to secure that arm triangle. Most high level fighters would have been able to get that submission the first time but Machida is not very tight in his ground game as he should be. Bottom Line: Machida will have nothing new in this fight. He had a chance to take out Shogun and confuse him with his elusiveness but now that Shogun has already seen what he has to offer they will be no surprises. Shogun is a most devastating fighter, He does not dance around and his strikes are straight and to the point. Even though Shogun won the first fight the online sports books still have him as a betting underdog at +150. If I was a sports book oddsmaker I would have set the lines -110 for both fighters. To me this fight is a steal and UFC bettors are getting a good deal at +150. I would lay a lot on Shogun to be the new UFC Light Heavyweight champion. At +150 this is the fight to bet on. I would lay a lot of money at a sportsbook quickly before the lines move closer together. Look for Shogun to Pick Apart Machida with Quicker Strikes to Win a Decision Victory to Become the New UFC ChampBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
||||
