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Matt Hughes (-440) vs. Renzo Gracie (+350)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 112: Invincible
April 10th, 2010 7 GMT
Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie
UFC Betting Pick: Renzo Gracie (+350)

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Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes (-440) vs. Renzo Gracie (+350)

Though this fight is being billed as legend versus legend and though there is no doubt both combatants are institutions of a sort in their own right, it is interesting to note that the UFC sports betting lines has this fight down as a potential blowout. I am very surprised the online betting lines have Matt Hughes (43-7) down as the betting favorite at -440 on most online sports books.

Both fighters are coming into this fight to “finish” some business. Hughes is out to avenge Gracie’s win over his former instructor, Pat Miletich via guillotine choke, where Renzo Gracie is out to even the score with Hughes after his win over Royce Gracie at UFC 60: Hughes vs. Gracie where he dominated Royce on the ground and nearly tapped him out.

Realistically, there is no way Renzo Gracie (13-6) should be given the odds he is at. Though he may not have been inside the octagon competitively in over three years, he is still the most respected Gracie and has the reputation of rising to, and going beyond any challenge.


Proof is in his bout with Kazushi Sakuraba at PRIDE 10: Return of the Warriors, where he chose to sacrifice his left arm rather than tapping out as “Gracie’s never tap”. To not relent and admit defeat and to endure the pain of rehabilitation to heal a broken arm acquired in battle—all in the name of pride—now that is tough and that is why Gracie garners the respect he does

Many believe Gracie to be out of fighting form as he has not competed for such a long stretch, but do not forget he has been in the middle of it all running and training others at his academy—Georges St. Pierre among them. Matt Hughes on the other hand has not been that busy of a fighter lately.


His last fight was over a year ago versus Matt Serra where he won a fairly lack luster unanimous decision. At one time Hughes was the hardest working fighting in MMA but lately he has not been that focused on fighting and his heart is not in fighting anymore. Like Renzo, he would rather coach and open up his own school.

One thing Hughes has not sought to improve is his striking which is close to horrible. In his last couple of fights he has resorted to falling back to a south paw stance which he did through his college wrestling days. As it is harder to face a fighter in this stance, Hughes has adapted it for his use.


Though not a south paw stance striker, his strikes tend to look “off”—they appear to be quite awkward with little power behind them. Keep in mind his striking is not the best to begin with and when he goes to south paw, he appears to lag even more.

Renzo is the best striker in the Gracie clan as he has very good technical striking. In this bout he will surprise many by the extent in which he will dominate Hughes. Keep in mind Hughes will not be looking to go to the ground with a sixth degree black belt which would certainly nullify any striking game he has. Gracie will pick apart Hughes with better strikes which will force Hughes to try to take him down where he will finish him off.


Bottom Line: Renzo Gracie is a legend. Not only is he a sixth degree Gracie Barra Black Belt under Carlos Gracie Jr., he is he a member of the revered Gracie clan—son of Robson Gracie, grandson of Carlos Gracie, nephew of Carlos Gracie, Jr. and grandnephew of Helio Gracie.


He definitely has some good pedigree for grappling. Renzo will have the home team advantage in this fight in Abu Dhabi—he has been the personal jiu-jitsu teacher of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, since 1993 and will definitely be the fan favorite going into this fight.

In all honesty, I do not think Matt Hughes has the heart to fight competitively anymore. He will have a tough time with his striking in this match and will be hard pressed as he would not want to engage Gracie on the ground either. Hughes’ strength lies in his wrestling ability and the fact he can control on the ground. He does not like to be on the bottom and though he may be good on the mats, he is not great like Gracie.

When it comes to sports betting I am all over this fight. It does not bother me that Gracie is 43 and Hughes 36 as both fighters have their fair share of battle scars and injuries. At +350 I love the online betting odds and would recommend betting heavily for a large payout in this fight.

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