|
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs. Hardy
March 27, 2010 7 GMT
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
UFC Betting Pick: Ricardo Almeida (-160)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetUS
Welterweight bout: Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida (-160) vs. Matt "The Immortal" Brown (+130)
Matt “The Immortal“ Brown (11 -7) has defied all my mixed martial arts predictions. He is my Achilles heel if you will. I keep predicting he gets beat but he continues to wins his fights. I don’t know why he keeps on winning. Well this time he will lose.
Brown is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and he is currently working towards a judo black belt. He trains with Jorge Gurgel and Rich Franklin. That is his first mistake. Both of these fighters are just horrible and have nothing to offer Brown. Brown now splits time training with Matt Hume in Seattle and at Wanderlei Silva's Warrior Training Center in Las Vegas. That is where Brown has developed as a fighter and it shows.
However, despite the fact Brown is becoming a better and better fighter he is now stepping up a level to fight a very tough fighter in Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida (14-3).
Ricardo Almeida is a top level fighter who has fought top quality opponents in his career. Almeida is a third degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, and part of the Gracie Barra Combat Team. Almeida is a veteran of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, PRIDE Fighting Championships, Grapplers Quest and a former Middleweight King of Pancrase. In Pancrase, he had notable wins over Nathan Marquardt and Kazuo Misaki.
Striking wise Matt Brown is the better fighter. He has power and he KO guys. But Almeida has only been knocked out once in his career and that was to Andrei Semenov way back in UFC 35: Throwdown and that was over 8 years ago. Yes Matt Brown has impressive KO wins over James Wilks at UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera, Pete Sell at UFC 96 : Jackson vs. Jardine and Matt Arroyo at the UFC: The Ultimate Finale 7 but he is stepping up a level of fighter and his dominate punching power might not be as apparent when he faces a tougher opponent.
The one glaring factor in this fight is the difference in grappling. Almeida is a 3rd black belt in jiu-jitsu and Brown is a blue belt. That is like night and day. Out of Brown’s 7 mixed martial arts loses, 5 of them have been by submission. His grappling game is nonexistent and training with Jorge Gurgel means he has flaws in his tightness and in his base which are the fundamentals in jiu-jitsu.
He has lost by submission to guys that are nowhere near as good as Almeida and once this fight gets to the ground it will be over quickly. Brown has lost by triangle choke, arm bar, rear naked choke and guillotine choke which shows his lack of grappling defense.
Just look at Almeida accomplishments, Brown has nowhere near the level of experience and he will be manhandled on the ground.
ADCC World Submission Wrestling Championships
ADCC 2003 88–98 kg: 4th place
ADCC 2001 88–98 kg: 2nd place Openweight: 4th place
ADCC 2000 Openweight: 3rd place
ADCC 1999 88–98 kg: 3rd place
ADCC 1998 88–98 kg: 2nd place
CBJJ Pan American Championships
1999 Brown Belt pesado: 1st Place
CBJJ Brazilian Championships
1997 Brown Belt Pesado: 1st Place
1996 Purple Belt Médio: 1st Place Purple Belt Open Weight: 3rd Place
Bottom Line: Brown may have had an impressive winning streak which some fights he should have lost but he is now stepping up a level of competition. Almeida is just a higher class of fighter.
Sport betting wise the UFC betting lines arewas off. I would have set the lines higher. To me this fight at -160 is a steal, I would have bet on the fight as high as -180 or -190. You have to realize that Brown is not a great fighter. He has power and heart but little skill. He is UFC record of 4–1 is very deceiving. Basically, if Brown wins this fights I’ll literally eat the paper I am writing this UFC matchup on.
Bet Heavily on Almeida to Submit Brown in the Second Round
Bet
on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates
»
Free Mixed Martial Arts Picks Archive «
|
