|
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs. Hardy
March 27, 2010 7 GMT
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
UFC Betting Pick: Jon Fitch (+150)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetCRIS
Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch (+150) vs. Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves (-132)
When I first looked at these UFC betting lines I had to take a double take. I cannot believe that Thiago ”The Pitbull” Alves (22-6) is the online betting favorite. I would have though the lines would be -110 for both fighters.
He will be fighting the most underrated fighter in the UFC in Jon Fitch (25-3) who has already beaten Alves at UFC: Ultimate Fight Night 5 by KO through kicks and punches. The reason why Fitch is not the online betting favorite in his last fight at UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez with Mike Pierce that went the distance.
Fitch is not a glamorous fighter and he does not have impressive wins but he is a skilled all around mixed martial arts fighter. He is like Dan Henderson and wins fights through attrition and going the distance. Out of his 21 victories 11 have been be decision with his last 6 UFC fights going to the judges. You have to remember that Fitch has faced top level UFC fighters and has only lost to Georges St Pierre at UFC 87: Seek and Destro, Wilson Gouveia, and his first MMA fight against Mike Pyle. The lists of fighters he has beaten is impressive with wins over Paulo Thiago, Akihiro Gono at UFC 94: St-Pierre vs. Penn 2, Chris Wilson, Diego Sanchez at UFC 76: Knockout, Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night: Stout vs. Fisher, Luigi Fioravanti, Josh Burkman, Brock Larson, Shonie Carter and of course Thiago Alves.
Before his loss to GSP, Fitch was on a 16 fight win streak where he fought wrestlers, jiu-jitsu fighters and strikers. He beat them all and it showed that he could fight mixed martial arts from any position.
Striking wise, Alves is the more powerful striker. He is known for his striking abilities with 16 out of his 22 wins coming by knock out. Yes he can KO most fighters but if you look at Fitches fights he has only been KO’ed once and that was by Wilson Gouveia who fights as a light heavyweight. If you look at his fight with GSP, Fitch was beat on for 5 rounds. He was hit with everything and he still would not go down. If you watched that fight you could not believe the punishment Fitch was taking; yet he still got up and fought. With that kind of heart I don’t see Alves being able to put Fitch away. Alves will punch himself out before he is able to KO Fitch.
Alves is not known as a fighter that can go into the later rounds but his has been able to put away guys early on. He is a second round fighter and when he goes past the second round he tires. He might be able to get his shots but you can’t knock out the heart of Fitch. In the first fight between the two Alves was winning the fight and he almost KO’ed Fitch but in the end Fitch turned it around and ended up KO’ing the American Top Team fighter late in the second round. I can see the same outcome in this fight.
Fitch dominates Alves in the wrestling department. He will be able to take Alves down due to his superior wrestling skills. Fitch was a member of the Purdue wrestling team, a four-year letterman and wrestled under Tom Erikson and eventually became the team captain of his wrestling squad. He will be able to get the takedown points but Alves does have a good sprawl and even St Pierre had trouble holding Alves down once he got the takedown but he will score the points and that will win him the fight.
Bottom Line: The reason why Alves is the online betting favorite is because Fitch has a poor showing in his last fight. Fitch won the fight by decision but he has a tough time against Mike Pierce at UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez.
This fight will likely go to decision since most of Fitch’s fights go the distance and a good bet is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance. Fitch will win this fight on takedown points and he will score some shots on the ground. He won’t be able hold Alves but Fitch will score the points. Alves will start off fast but will gas out late
in the second round and into the third and that when Fitch will take over.
Look for Fitch to Win a 3 Round Split Decision
Bet
on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates
»
Free Mixed Martial Arts Picks Archive «
|
