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UFC 111: St-Pierre vs. Hardy
March 27, 2010 7 GMT
Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy
UFC Betting Pick: Georges St. Pierre (-715)
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Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St. Pierre (-715) vs. Dan Hardy (+515)
Even the UFC marketing spin doctors will be hard pressed to make this fight sound like a real event. Georges “Rush” St. Pierre (21-2) is a top pound for pound fighter while realistically, Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (31-6) is not even among the top 15 in the UFC 170 pound welterweight division.
Everyone has a punchers chance of defeating St. Pierre in the octagon and I would give Hardy a 1% chance of winning this fight based on the fact he has heart and will not give up. He has great striking and a lot of power behind his punches but is ultimately a brawler and not terribly technical. Though Hardy has good hands he has not been able to knockout anyone of note. He went the distance with both Marcus Davis at UFC 99: The Comeback and Mike Swick at UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera. He was the underdog in both these fights and he fought very well, however, he was not able to down either opponent with his punches. Both Davis and Swick are decent punchers and if Hardy, who is known for his striking, cannot put them away it is unlikely he will be able to overwhelm St. Pierre. To be fair, Hardy did replace the injured Kim Dong-hyun on short notice for UFC 105 and did not have a proper training camp but he was still able to go the distance.
Hardy is a true stand up fighter as his wrestling skills are sorely lacking and St. Pierre will be able to easily dominate him by shooting in and taking him to the mat. Hardy does not have any wrestling in his background and will be hard pressed to avoid the vicious takedowns attempts by St Pierre who has beaten world class wrestlers at their own game. Top NCAA wrestler Jon Fitch, a member of the Purdue University wrestling team and four-year letterman, was taken by St. Pierre at UFC 87: Seek and Destroy. Matt Hughes, a member of the NJCAA All-American Team during his university days and a member of the NCAA Division I All-American Teams during his last two years also fell to St. Pierre at UFC 79: Nemesis while Josh Koscheck who won all 42 of his wrestling matches and went on to become the NCAA Division I Champion in the 174 lb weight class during his days at Edinboro University of Pennsylvania lost to St. Pierre at UFC 74: Respect.
If this fight goes to the ground, it will be game over for Hardy—if St. Pierre is able to gain top position there will be little Hardy can do to get out of his ground and pound. B.J. Penn and Matt Serra are both technically sound when it comes to grappling, however, when they faced off against St. Pierre neither could maneuver from under him and both faced the consequences. Having just received his Purple Belt in 10th planet jiu-jutsu from Eddie Bravo, which in reality is a blue belt at best when compared to Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Hardy just does not have the grappling ability to escape St. Pierre`s ground and pound.
Bottom Line: Let us be honest here—Hardy really should not be in the UFC octagon facing, of all people, St. Pierre, and with a proven record against the “best of the best” in the welterweight division, St. Pierre must now “resort” to fighting the likes of Hardy? Need I say more?
UFC Sports Betting: The last time the odds were so great (-800) St. Pierre lost to Matt Serra at UFC 69: Shootout. Will this be a repeat performance? I do not believe so, because as any top level fighter knows, no match should ever be taken lightly. St. Pierre has matured as a fighter in the last two and one half years and will not make the same mistake twice. On the flip side, it is useless to lay down $715 just to make $100 but if you have the coin why not?
Take GSP to Ground and Pound Hardy out in the Third Round
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