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UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 109: Relentless
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"Minotauro" Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (-120) vs. Cain Velasquez (-110)by Stan Leung |
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UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez Heavyweight Bout: "Minotauro" Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (-120) vs. Cain Velasquez (-110) Is Cain Velasquez (7-0) the next UFC heavyweight champion like everyone is touting him to be? For some reason everyone and in the forums, blog and mixed martial arts websites has already called Velasquez as the next heavyweight champion. Is this overhype by the UFC since the heavyweight division is pretty weak or are these rumblings valid? My simple answer is yes and no. I do believe that he will be a great fighter one day. But today is not that day. Velasquez will be a top level fighter in about 4 or 5 years but not on February 21, 2010 when he steps in with one of the best heavyweights in mixed martial arts history. Minotauro Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-5-1-1) has been one of the premier heavyweights in MMA for the last decade and he still has the skills to win the UFC heavyweight title. Yes, the knock on him is that he has been in too many wars and that he is punch drunk. After his fight with Frank Mir at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008, many people thought Minotauro may have been in to many striking wars but he still is a top level striker and a world class grappler and the jury is still out on Cain. Despite having 6 knock outs in his last 7 fights Velasquez is not the heavy striker that most people make him out to be. If he gets is a striking war with Nog he will get hit with a lot of jabs. Velasquez like any wrestler is very strong and very powerful. All wrestlers have this “retard” strength about them and when they fight mixed martial arts they tend punch hard versus having technical punching. Yes Velasquez can KO people, but he is a "chucker" and he throws the wild over hand right with a lot of power. Against most fighters this is enough to win the striking battle. But against a technically good striker Velasquez will get picked apart. If you look at his fight with Cheick Kongo at UFC 99: The Comeback he was picked apart with technical striking. Kongo only hit him with a couple of shots but Velasquez was hurt and you could see the holes in his striking game. If he fights a better technical striker Velasquez will get hit. Velasquez comes from a MMA camp based mainly on former wreslters. He fights for American Kickboxing Academy which is one of het best camps in the world. He trains with good power strikers like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Paul Buentello and Mike Swick. If you notice these guys are all wrestlers turned strikers. They are all powerful but not technically sound strikers. Nogueira, on the other hand, trains at Black House with Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and former Chute Boxe Academy fighter Antonio "Nino" Schembri. Most of the guys at that club are not power based strikers but more precision and technical strikers. That is the difference between theses 2 fighters. Power versus Technique. Nogueira may not have more power than Velasquez but he is a better technical striker. He started boxing at age 14 and was good enough to even try out for the Brazilian National Boxing team. If this fight turns into a striking battle Nog will pick Velasquez apart with jabs as he moves forward. Velasquez is a pressure fighter and if you look at most of his fights he likes to use his aggression and move forward. Like a typical wrestler he leans too far forward and rushes in. Again against most fighters this works and he will beat them down with speed, power and aggression. But Nogueira is a world class fighter that can fight from everywhere. Nogueira won’t knockout Velasquez, but his striking is technically sound that he will counter his pressure fighting. If Kongo was a better fighter his striking would have set up other aspects of fighting like grappling. Velasquez was badly hurt by his striking but was not afraid of other aspects of his game and Velasquez continued to come forward where he knew he could get the clinch and get tthe takedown. Against Nogueira he won’t bet able to do this because of the threat of his bottom ground game. Cain, won the BJJ blue belt championships roughly a year after starting submission grappling. He currently holds a purple belt under Dave Camarillo. But a purple belt under Camarillo is not on the same level of grappling as Nogueira’s black belt from Ricardo de la Riva who is considered the top 5 grapplers of all time. De la Riva was one of Carlson Gracie’s top students which is considered the best from of grappling for mixed martial arts due to its aggressive top game and aggression to base, technique and power. If you look at Cain’s last fight with Ben Rothwell at UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun he used his dominate wrestling game to pin down Rothwell. He came in for single leg takedowns and used his dominate wrestling game to impose his top wrestling game. From there he was able to land strikes. Yes he won the fight by strikes on the score sheet but it was his wrestling that set it up. He will not be able to do the same thing he did against Nog as he did against Rothwell. Nogueira’s is too good to be pinned down. Nogueira has an incredible bottom grappling game and he will not let Velasquez pin his shoulder or hips down like Velasquez has down with other fighters. Nogueira is not going to let Cain pin him down and can roll out. If you look at the picture below you there is not way that Nogueira will ever let Cain maintain this position. This fight will eventually go to the ground and Cain will try to maintain top position but Nogueira will bait him into one position and Velasquez will over commit and that is when Minotauro will submit him. Bottom Line: Nogueira is a top level fighter that is something that Cain does not have yet. Nogueira is the first and only fighter to have held Championship titles in both the Pride Fighting Championship promotion and the Ultimate Fighting Championship promotion. He holds notable wins over Tim Sylvia, Dan Henderson, Sergei Kharitonov, Mark Coleman, Valentijn Overeem, Ricco Rodriguez, Mirko Filipović, Jeremy Horn, Josh Barnett, Heath Herring, Fabricio Werdum, Semmy Schilt, Bob Sapp and Randy Couture. Who has Cain beaten? He has not fought a top ten fighter in his career. Yes he has looked good against mid range and below average fighters but lets see how he does against a top level fighter. UFC betting wise the -120 lines for Nogueira is a good price to wager at. I would have set the Nogueira betting lines a bit higher, so to be this is a high value bet. Give Cain 3 more years to be a world champion. But not today. Look for Nogueira to Sub Velasquez in the Second RoundBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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