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UFC 109: Relentless
February 6, 2010 7 GMT
Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg
UFC Betting Pick: Frank Trigg (+110)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Sports Interaction
Welterweight bout: Matt "The Terror" Serra (-130) vs Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg (+110)
The most entertaining part of UFC 109: Relentness will be the trash talk between Matt "The Terror" Serra (9-6) and Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg (19-7). Both of these fighters have the gift of the gab and the war of words during the pre-fight hype will be just as, if not more entertaining than the fight itself.
As for the physical fight, it is going to be a close one. Trigg needs a win as a loss could mean the end of his fighting career, however, the same also goes for Serra, though being slight of stature, he has expressed considerable interest in competing in the 170 welterweight category within the UFC. This will be a fight to the death, so to speak, as both warriors will be fighting to keep their UFC careers alive.
Grappling—there is no contest of whom is superior. Serra is a high level black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has faced some of the best grapplers in the world. He has competed in the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship where he choked out Takanori Gomi and won a decision over jiu-jitsu legend Jean-Jacques Machado. He has also won a bronze medal in the1999 CBJJ World Championships and has a first place finish as a purple belt at the Pan-American Championships. Matt Serra, along with his brother Nick, also run Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu schools in East Meadow and Huntington, New York.
It should be noted however, that all of Serra’s accolades were over ten years ago and at a time when jiu-jitsu was not as popular as it is today. Though he has the technical skills and may be a very good coach, Serra has not been a force in the world of grappling for a number of years now. In mixed martial arts he has not submitted a fighter since UFC 36: Worlds Collide against Kelly Dullanty which was his only ever submission in the UFC, however, he has a total of four in MMA. So despite what people say about his grappling in MMA, it is overrated—especially within the 170 division.
When it comes to wresting Trigg has the advantage and was a standout on the University of Oklahoma team. He has the size and the strength which he will use to his advantage against the 5 foot 5 Serra. The last time Trigg lost by submission was to Carlos Condit at Rumble on the Rock 9. His other submission losses were to Matt Hughes at UFC 45: Revolution and UFC 52: Couture vs. Liddell 2 and to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 54: Boiling Point. All three loses came by rear naked choke. Serra has never had a rear naked choke submission and to do so he will have to get the bigger, stronger and more skilled Trigg on his back which will be difficult.
Striking. Serra is a powerful striker but he is a chucker. He likes to throw the overhand right and has good power behind his shots but that is about it. Since Serra is so much smaller than his average opponent he needs to throw looping shots just to connect. If you look at Serra’s record of nine and six his only prominent win was against Georges St Pierre at UFC 69: Shootout with the overhand right. This fight was most likely the most shocking upset in sports betting history at +800. Unfortunately, every fighter in the world is aware that all Serra has is his overhand punch, and not much more. On the other hand Trigg is a decent striker—he is not great but he has enough skills to get by as evident by his six wins by TKO.
Bottom Line: In mixed martial arts, Trigg has proven he can win against high level grapplers. He has beaten BJJ black belts Marcelo Aguiar, Renato Verissimo, jiu-jitsu legend Jean Jacques Machado as well as Fabiano Iha and Denis Hallman. Trigg is comfortable with fighting grapplers and will have not problem with Serra. However, Trigg does not seem to be able to pull off a victory when needed.
After a brief retirement from MMA Trigg returned to fighting for the Icon Sport Middleweight title in 2006 where he TKO’ed Jason "Mayhem" Miller. He went on to win an upset decision over highly ranked Kazuo Misaki at Pride 33: Second Coming but with a loss to Robbie Lawler at Icon Sport: Epic and to Josh Koscheck at UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort, Trigg once again finds himself on the brink of retirement. The difference this time around is that Trigg is a true welterweight while Serra is really a lightweight. Serra does not have what it takes to go toe-to-toe with Trigg will be at the receiving end of his striking reach, takedowns and ground and pound. Serra has shorter limbs and will not be able to hold Trigg in his guard nor will he be able to arm bar or triangle choke the wider frame of Trigg.
When it comes to sports betting this is the best fight to go with at UFC 109 as all the other fights are quite heavy weighted for the favorites. The lines for this battle are quite accurate but personally, I would have opened up with both fighters at -110. Getting Trigg as the underdog at +110 is a great deal and is only as such because Serra has received more marketing and air time—he was a coach on the TUF Ultimate Fighter show and has that one victory over Georges St Pierre.
Neither fighter is as good as the UFC makes them out to be and this fight will go the distance. This is the ideal UFC prop bet to make. In Serra’s last nine UFC fights, seven of them have gone the distance. Though Serra will be outsized, he is a scrapper and can fight. He will be battered by Trigg but Trigg does not have the grappling skill nor does he the power to put Serra away.
Trigg on the other hand, has had four decisions out of his last seven fights. He has the size to prevent Serra from trapping him in any takedown and submission attempts and has enough skill in the stand up to avoid his one power shot. The best bet is make a parlay combined with a prop bet for Trigg to win on the moneyline (+110) and for the fight to go the distance (-230).
Look for Trigg to Hold Off Retirement with a Three Round Split Decision Victory
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