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"Sugar" Rashad Evans (+150) vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (-190)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 98 Evans vs. Machida
May 23rd 2009 7 PM
Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida
UFC Betting Pick: Rashad Evans (+150)

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UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Fight: "Sugar" Rashad Evans (+150) vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (-190)

For a world champion undefeated mixed martial arts fighter, "Sugar" Rashad Evans (18-0-1) is quite a huge underdog versus number one contender Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (14-0) who is also undefeated.

Sports betting wise at +150, I am not convinced Machida will win this fight. This is a great underdog bet to make against a very strong and disciplined fighter. I thought the betting odds would be much closer, as the sportsbook oddsmakers are not giving enough respect to a UFC champion. Evans is in better shape, better coached, stronger than his opponent, and has better wrestling skills. But the key to this underdog victory is coaching and that is the intangible factor that will give Rashad the victory.

Since winning the TUF Ultimate Fighter, I was never convinced that Evans would be a great fighter. That has all changed. If you look at his last 5 fights, he has gotten so much better and he has joined a great camp, Jackson Fighting Submission under the tutelage of Greg Jackson.

No other mixed martial arts camp has their fighters better prepared to enter a fight than Greg Jackson. If you watch Evans fight, he is composed and always listening to Jackson’s game plan developed specially for each fight. Every fight is different. For the Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 – Breakthrough fight, he made Evans wait to counter strike. Evans was moving in and moving out and waited to counter the Iceman’s punches. For the Forrest Griffin at UFC 92 - The Ultimate 2008, the game plan was to use his wrestling skills to take Griffin down and than hold him there for a ground a pound. Whatever game plan Jackson comes up with, Rashad will listen to it and execute it for a victory.

Machida has no game plan when he fights. He is elusive and aloof when he fights. He confuses his opponents with his awkward style of striking and he lures his opponents to becoming frustrated and bored and that’s when they make a mistake. Many of Machida opponents get frustrated and attack and that’s when Machida hurts his opponents.

The difference between most of his mixed martial arts opponents and Rashad Evans is that Rashad is a patient fighter and will not be drawn into his striking battle. Greg Jackson will dictate when Evans will attack. With no game plan by Machida, tactics will not work in this fight.

Machida fights out of Black House with such fighters as UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva, former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, and former UFC interim heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Striking-wise, Machida is a better striker who throws kicks and punches at odd angles. Many fighters are confused by Machida’s unorthodox striking style.

Don’t count out Rashad’s striking. He has an unorthodox striking style as well. Rashad constantly moves his hands to draw his opponent to flinch or move. He also constantly moves his head in and out to draw fighters to strike at him. Both fighters have the ability to KO each other in this fight but both fighters are very cautious and no fighter will be attacking.

Bottom Line: The key to this fight will be the Evans ability to take down and control Machida. Machida is a very boring fighter and many people are just looking at Machida’s last fight with Thiago Silva at UFC 94: St-Pierre vs. Penn 2. Yes, that was spectacular knock out and that is the reason why he is the online betting favorite in this fight. But before that fight, Machida was a boring fighter who played it safe.

He was dodging Tito Ortiz at UFC 84: Ill Will and almost got submitted at the end of the fight. In his fight with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79: Nemesis, he had to apply the arm triangle choke a number of times before he got the submission with a sloppy technique.

Machida is not a pressure fighter while Rashad Evans will use pressure when needed and that is the difference in the fight. Out of Machida’s 14 wins, 8 have come by decision. This means he is not a finisher despite what people think. Once Evans applies the pressure and is able to take him down, Machida will be exposed on his back. Neither fighter is a great grappler but if Evans gains top position, he has the size, pressure and strength to hold Machida down.

The best bet would be to place a UFC prop bet on a decision victory by Evans. Neither fighter will be willing to engage. Expect a lot of boos from the crowd as both fighters will not want to make a mistake and stay on the outside of each other. This will be a boring fight but Evans will get the takedown points and land the better shots in the top position.

Machida has a cerebral and conservative style which is boring and unsatisfying to watch with limited aggression. His lack of pressure will not score well with the judges should the fight go to a decision. Once Evans attacks he will score more points but he will not be frustrated into making mistakes. That has all to do with Greg Jackson and that is the key to his victory. In the end, Evans will win what might be the most boring fight in UFC history.

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