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Matt Hughes (-250) vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra (+210)

by Stan Leung
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May 23rd 2009 7 PM
Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra
UFC Betting Pick: Matt Hughes (-250)

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UFC Welterweight Fight: Matt Hughes (-250) vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra (+210)

This is a fight I have been looking forward to for almost 2 years now. Both Matt Hughes (43-7)  and Matt “The Terror” Serra (9-5) hate each other and this fight will most likely be both fighters last in the UFC. Matt Hughes still has what it takes to be a top level fighter but his heart is not into fighting.

To be honest Matt Hughes is a dick. He is arrogant and conceited, and not the most liked fighter in the UFC. He is always shooting off his mouth and has the jock mentality. I would like nothing more than for Hughes to get beat on his last mixed martial arts fight, but he won’t lose. Hughes is probably the best 170 pound fighter in UFC history and he has redefined MMA fighting. Throughout his career he has beaten every type of fighter and fought everyone from wrestlers like Sean Sherk and Frank Trigg to grapplers like Royce Gracie and BJ Penn. If Hughes’ heart was into training, he could almost anyone in the world.

Hughes would rather coach or work in the fields as a farmer. With Robbie Lawler, longtime boxing coach Matt Pena, and wrestling/conditioning teacher Marc Fiore he has formed The H.I.T. (Hughes Intensive Training) Squad in Granite City, Illinois. That’s where his new passion is. It is not about fighting anymore. If he was dedicated to becoming a full time mixed martial arts fighter, he would be the second best welterweight tin the UFC. In his last fight with Thiago Alves at UFC 85: Bedlam, he did not train hard and was not prepared for the fight as he should have been. Hughes has been very vocal about his career being in its twilight, evidenced by his speech after his loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 79: Nemesis, where he hinted at the possibly of retiring in an effort to afford time to his family and a potential second book. However, he stated that he has "one last fight" left, and that he wants to fight Matt Serra due to the verbal feud each fighter has for each other.

Matt Hughes has not been dedicated to train since his first loss to Georges St Pierre. Since that loss, he has coasted and his heart has not been into fighting. But this will be his last MMA fight versus a fighter he does not like and Matt Hughes will be the Matt Hughes of old.

People talk about Matt Serra’s grappling. Why? He might be a great gi jujitsu fighter but his last MMA submission came in 2002 against Kelly Dullanty at UFC 36: Worlds Collide. His other 3 submission victories came in his first 3 pro MMA fights. To be honest, I have never been impressed with Serra’s BJJ game. He might be a good teacher but his game is not solid enough against high quality grapplers.

Serra is a former Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Pan American games Champion in 1999 and won third place at the 1999 World Championships in Brazil as a brown belt. He also competed in the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship choking out Takanori Gomi and winning a decision over Jean-Jacques Machado, placing 2nd in the 66-76kg division. But Hughes has also competed in the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship as well with wins over Ricardo Almeida and Jeremy Horn, and losses to UFC fighters Jeff Monson and Tito Ortiz.

Hughes may not be as technical on the ground as but he has more power, size and strength to hold down Serra with his superior wrestling ability. Serra is a short fighter and grappler, and because of this he does not have the ability to arm bar or triangle choke Hughes. He also has short stubby legs and his closed guard game is not very tight. Serra likes to use an open guard game and that is not good against a ground and pound fighter like Hughes. By opening up his legs in open guard, it gives Hughes a chance to pin one leg down and pass into half guard where he has the ability to control Serra and pound him out.

The difference in grappling will be wresting and strength. Hughes is a much better wrestler, and he will use his size and power to overwhelm Serra. Hughes has fought short stalky fighters who have always had a tough time with Hughes’ power. Hughes has been able to pick up them and slam them to the ground. He did this to Sean Sherk at UFC 42: Sudden Impact and Hayato Sakurai at UFC 36: Worlds Collide, and they both have similar body types as Serra. Hughes has a huge wrestling advantage as he was also a two-time 130 lb. state wrestling champion for IHSA (Illinois High School Association) Class A in 1991 and 1992 and a two-time Division I All-American wrestler, with an 8th and a 5th place finish in the 157 lb. division.

Striking size, it might be a surprise but Serra has the advantage. He has a very good overhand right punch and good power behind his punches. Even though Serra is the more powerful puncher and technically better striker, he has short T-Rex limbs. He will not be able to reach Hughes with his striking. The only KO Serra has ever had in MMA has been at UFC 83: Serra VS St-Pierre 2 against Georges St. Pierre. Serra. If Serra fought at lightweight, he will be fighting guys his size and his striking will be more dominating. But since he is so short and fighting at welterweight, he does not have the ability to reach his opponents. Being 5’6”, fighting guys who are 6 feet puts Serra at a disadvantage.

Bottom Line: Hughes has the dominating size, strength and wrestling power to take Serra down and slam him to the ground. From there he will control Serra and do damage in the ground and pound. However, Serra does have the ability to keep Hughes at bay and hold him off with a good half guard game. Even though Hughes has the ability to control Serra, Serra will be able to deflect a lot of shots.

The best online sports bet for this fight go the distance. This is a great UFC prop bet to make. First both fighters do not want to lose to each other and both will be training very hard for this fight. If you look at Serra’s MMA record, he has 7 fights that have gone to the decision. He will be able to hold off Hughes in this fight as Hughes is not as dominating as he once was. Do I want Hughes to get beat? Yes. Will he? Sorry, I’m sad to say no, he will not lose. At -250 it might a little too steep to place a money line bet but the better bet is a UFC prop bet for the fight to go to decision with a Hughes victory.

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