UFC 97 Redemption
April 18th, 2009 7 PM
Nate Quarry vs MacDonald
UFC Betting Pick: MacDonald (-120)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Betfair
UFC Middleyweight Fight: Nate “The Rock” Quarry (-110) vs Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald (-120)
Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald (21-11) will have the support of his home country and he will be fighting a very overrated fighting in Nate “The Rock” Quarry (10-3). Nate “The Rock” Quarry is a product of the Ultimate Fighting reality show and he is definitely getting the soft betting lines as a result of this. The TUF betting bump as it will.
In terms of a mixed martial arts fighter, I would rate Quarry as below average. He has decent hands buy he has yet to show me that he can step up to be a good UFC fighter. Quarry can only rely on his striking but MacDonald is a much better all round fighter and he will come into this fight as the bigger and more skilled fighter.
The best way to gauge this fight is from both of their fights with Demian Maia. Quarry fought Maia at UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar and was dominated. Maia made him look pedestrian. Quarry had no answer for his ground game and he could not do anything in that fight and was embarrassed in the first round. When MacDonald fought Maia at UFC 87: Seek and Destroy he put on a decent fight. He got out of Maia’s submission attempts and he fought a decent fight until he was submitted in the third round. One fighter showed his ersistence and willingness to fight while one fighter showed his lack of skill.
Striking wise Quarry has heavier hands but he does not have the reach. MacDonald is built Like Rich Franklin with a long reach. Quarry has a very compact striking style. He has good fundamentals as he keeps his hands in tight but he also does not have a long reach. He will not be able to outjab MacDonald and pressure him with the striking like he did with Pete Sell.
If Quarry cannot win the striking battle, he really has no other way to win. He has good hands and that s about it. His kicks are average and he does not have the reach to hurt MacDonald. I don’t see this fight last very long in the standup as Quarry will have to lean in to reach MacDonald and that will give the chance for MacDonald take him down.
MacDonald will come into this fight as the bigger fighter and he will be able to use his strength and size to pressure Quarry and will eventually get the takedown. Once this fight goes to the ground, Quarry’s lack of size and grappling ability will get submitted. In Quarry’s 13 fights, he has only 2 by submission. MacDonald has very underestimated grappling skills and has more than enough skill to beat Quarry on the ground. Just look at how hard it was for Maia to submit MacDonald. There is no way that Quarry will be able to submit MacDonald in this fight.
Once MacDonald gets top control or side control, he will be able to use his size strength and better base to control Quarry, and either submit him or ground and pound him out. If Quarry is in a bad position he does not have the ability to get out since his grappling game is at a blue belt level at best. On the ground MacDonald will pick apart Quarry and if Quarry gains top position, MacDonald has very long limbs and has very good triangle chokes and arm bars from guard.
Bottom Line: The biggest advantage MacDonald will have is that he has now moved over to train at Jackson's Submission Fighting, under the guidance Greg Jackson who will formulate a game plan that MacDonaldwill follow. Just look at all the Greg Jackson fighters and how they have listened to him and they way they fight in the octagon.
If MacDonald follows Jackson’s game plan, he will have no problem with Quarry who basically trains at a club with not very many fighters to help him prepare. MacDonald has Georges St Pierre, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, David Loiseau, Nate Marquardt, Joey Villasenor, Karo Parisyan and Denis Kang to help him prepare while Quarry trains at Next Level MMA who has no one to push him.
Sports betting wise this UFC bets is a great one to lay a lot on. MacDonald will have the home town crowd and has had a great training camp. Because Quarry is a bigger name and has been on the reality show, he gets favorable betting lines and is a slight underdog at -110.
If I were a sportsbook odds maker I would have set the odds at -140 MacDonald and +120 Quarry but since he gets the online betting bump the lines are much closer for MacDonald. This is a perfect bet to make and the odds are good enough as oddsmakers have set the lines incorrectly.
Look for MacDonald to take Quarry down and Armbar him in the Second Round
on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates
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