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Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (-320) vs. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+260)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 96 Jackson vs. Jardine
March 7th, 2009 7 PM
Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine
UFC Betting Pick: Keith Jardine (+260)

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UFC Light Heavyweight Fight: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (-320) vs. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+260)

If you are an avid reader of this site you know we are a huge fan of Greg Jackson fighters. We love how they train, how they listen and how they formulate a fight plan going into a fight. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (14-4-1) is a sponge when it comes to absorbing and learning. If he listens to Greg Jackson’s game plan and if he can survive the first round he will beat Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (29-7).

At +260 at most online sportsbook this is a UFC bet sports bettors can not pass up. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine gets very little respect in mixed martial arts and coming in at +260 this is a great bet to make. There is no way the lines should this way off in this fight. I would advice all bettors to lay heavily on Jardine upset, which in my opinion is not an upset at all.

Rampage knocked Wanderlei Silva and Wanderlei knockout Jardine. Jardine beat Forest Griffin and both fighters beat Chuck Liddell who in turn beat Silva. Yes this is confusing; which leads to the point that no one fighter in the UFC 205 light heavyweight division is dominating right now. Anyone can beat anyone on any day. My point is to throw out any past fights and fighting history. To analysis this fight you have to look at 2 factors: fighting style and training.

Style makes fights and Jardine’s style is very different from any fighter that Jackson has fought in hois career. Rampage does well against strikers that like to fight and come forward like Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva but Jardine does not come forward and is a good lateral fighter.

Does Jackson have more power? Yes. Is he a better striker? Yes. Does Jackson have better kicks? No. There in lies the key to Jardine’s victory. Jardine will use his lower legs kicks to hurt Jackson. If you watched the fight with Forrest Griffin at UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin, Griffin kept on hurting Jackson with lower leg kicks. Like Forrest, Jardine does have very long legs and he will be able to hurt Rampage in the stand up. The reason is that Jackson never checks his kicks. He would rather take the shot to the leg and throw the power hand. But if his opponent has longer limbs he will not be able to connect with the power hand. He was unable to do that against Forrest Griffin and he will not be able to do that against Jardine in this fight. Jackson has done nothing to improve his kicks and especially checking his kicks. Jardine will soften Jackson up so much that he will start to dominate the fight.

Does Jardine have a bad chin? Well one can be same about if Jackson has a bad chin. Both fighters can knock anyone out and both fighters can get knocked out. Rampage has really good strikes and is the most powerful puncher in the light heavyweight division. However, because Jardine has such a weird standup style it will confuse Jackson. Jackson will be thrown off from Jardine’s herky jerky fighting style.

Jardine will able to soften up Rampage with lower legs kicks and once Rampage tries to block with his hand Jardine will go high with his kicks. He can also go for shoot attempts to get takedown points. That is exactly what Forrest Griffin did in their fight. Rampage does have better wrestling but once he is softened up with legs kicks he will not be as mobile. Despite better wreslting when was the last time Jackson when for a shot? Once Jardine has beaten him with leg kicks all the wrestling advantage will be nullified.

The next clue to victory for Jardine is training. Until a Greg Jackson fighter lets me down you have to bet on Jardine. Greg Jackson is a mastermind in mixed martial arts. Just look how he corners his fighters. They all listen to his game plan and they all execute what Jackson tells them to do in a fight. Look at the Rashad Evans' last two fights versus Forrest Griffin at UFC 92 - The Ultimate 2008 and Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 – Breakthrough. He came into that fight with a game plan and attacked when Jackson told him to. Now he is the Light Heavyweight Champion. Look at the Georges St Pierre fight versus BJ Penn. He listened to Jacksons and only shoot in when he told him to. And most recently look at the Nathan Marquardt's fight versus Wilson Gouveia at UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson Jackson. His game plan was to confuse Gouveia and Gouveia was lost the entire fight because Marquardt and Jackson had a terrific game plan.

Greg Jackson has his fighters well prepared and ready to fight in each and every MMA fight. Rampage Jackson is not very hard fighter to figure out. He is one dimensional and breaking down his game will be quite easy. Greg Jackson will formulate a good fight and once executed I see Jardine confusing and frustrating Rampage until he makes a mistake.

Let’s be honest if this fight goes past the first round Rampage is in trouble. He is the type of fighter that needs to finish early. Greg Jackson knows this and will have Jardine on the outside moving laterally. He is not known as the most conditioned fighter in the world and we all know abut his recent troubles with bouts of depression.

Putting all the personal stuff aside Rampage has been training over in England with the Wolfslair MMA Academy which is  training camp for mixed martial artists, and kick boxers in Widnes, United Kingdom. The club has such fighters like Michael Bisping, Cheick Kongo and  Paul Kelly. Not to be mean but their fighters are average UFC fighters at best and not top level MMA fighters that can really push Rampage to train hard. All of these fighters are not known for their conditioning and Greg Jackson will make this fight go deep into the round where he will than plan an attack.

Bottom Line: Sports betting wise I highly recommend betting a lot on the UFC underdog. Greg Jackson is the best MMA strategist in the world and just look at his past records with fighters. All of his fighters train hard and most importantly listen to his game plan. Another great bet to make is to make a UFC prop bet for Jardine to win by 3 round decision.


At 5 Dimes this UFC prop bet pays out +610. The reason why? Greg Jacksons knows Rampages has a lot of power but he has bad conditioning and if Jardine stays on the outside and use lower legs kicks he can score points and eventually get the take down. Just like in the fight between Rashad Evans and Chuck Liddell, Jardine will move laterally and stay out of Rampage's range. Only at the right moment will Jardine engage. Bet the prop and bet the money line and take the parlay bets on both for these 3 bets for very good pay out.

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