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Shane Carwin (+155) vs Gabriel "Napão" Gonzaga (-175)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 96 Jackson vs. Jardine
March 7th, 2009 7 PM
Shane Carwin vs Gabriel Gonzaga
UFC Betting Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga (-175)

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UFC Heavyweight Fight: Shane Carwin (+155) vs Gabriel "Napão" Gonzaga (-175)

Shane Carwin (10-0) will be facing the toughest task of his young MMA career, as he takes on Gabriel "Napão" Gonzaga (10-3). Gonzaga only loses in the UFC came at the hands of former top ten heavy weights Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80: Rapid Fire and Randy Couture at UFC 74: Respect. Carwin is an up and coming fighter but may not be fully ready to face a top well rounded fighter like Gonzaga.

UFC bettors might think that Carwin is a good bet at +155 because of his incredible power. However, Gonzaga is a top level grappling and is one of the best jujitsu fighters in the world. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Wander Braga, and is a former member of the famous Chute Boxe Academy. He won the Mundials (2004), which is considered to be the top BJJ competition in the world and currently trains with Team Link in Massachusetts. He has also fought in the in the 2005 Absolute Division in the prestigious ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship which is an invite only grappling tournament for only the best grapplers in the world. On the ground there is no question that Gonzaga is much better.

Shane Carwin is no grappler and if this fight goes to the ground it will be over in an instant. However he is very strong and it will be hard for him to be taken down. Carwin wrestled in college, becoming a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight in 1996-97, and the NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999. He was also a two-time All-American in football.

The key to this fight will be striking and Gonzaga has the advantage. A lot of bettors will think that Carwin has the striking advantage but it is Gonzaga who will dominate the striking battle. Gonzaga’s Muay Tai and kicks will be the deciding factor in this fight. As a former member of the Chute Boxe Academy, Gonzaga has incredible kicks. Just look at his fight with Cro Cop at UFC 70: Nations Collide where he knocked out one of the best kickboxers in the world.

Shane Carwin striking is very powerful but he leans too far forward and is very up right like how most wrestlers turned MMA fighters stand. By leaning to far forward, Carwin looks like he is planning to shoot but he is open for high legs kicks. Carwin will try to pressure and bum rush Gonzaga and if Gonzaga can withstand the initial onslaught he will be able to start to pick apart Carwin in the stand up with a mix of lower and high legs kicks. I can see a highlight reel knock out by Gonzaga in the this fight. Think Mark Coleman versus Pete Williams style KO. Shane Carwin’s striking style is like Mark Coleman’s and if he leans too far forward and tries to check a lower leg kick that turns to a high leg kick Carwin will get knocked out like how Coleman got KO'ed at UFC 17: Redemption fight.

Bottom Line: Shane Carwin is a legitimate fighter but he is still a one dimensional fighter. He has power and wrestling but when he faces a top level well rounded fighter he will get picked apart and exposed. UFC sports betting wise, the odds are still good at -175 to be worth laying on Gonzaga.

Even though Carwin is a better wrestler he will not try to shoot in and take this fight to the ground since he knows Gonzaga is a world class grappler. Instead he will try to stand and trade punches with Gonzaga and that will be his mistake.

At the end of the day do we even know that Carwin is a legitimate fighter? He has not fought a top level fighter in his career and he has not been past the first round. If Gonzaga can take him past the first round he will be out of his comfort zone. Carwin has a lot of muscle and is very big fighter and once gets past a certain point his body type will tire much faster than Gonzaga. At 264 pounds his muscles need a lot of air to recuperate and all Gonzaga has to do is stay on the outside and lay kicks to push him back.

At -175 you can still make a lot of money and come out with a good pay out. I like Gonzaga’s all round game cmpared to Carwin’s strength and power.

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