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UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson
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Nate “The Great” Marquardt (-260) vs. Wilson Gouveia (+210)by
Stan Leung |
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UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson UFC Middleweight Fight: Nate “The Great” Marquardt (-260) vs. Wilson Gouveia (+210) Wilson Gouveia (12-5) has always been the fighter that could. So much talent yet he does not work hard in the gym to train. Well Wilson Gouveia will have to train hard for this fight since he is dropping to middleweight to fight Nate “The Great” Marquardt (26-8-2). Again to me this fight is a value bet. Yes Marquardt is a better grappler but I do not think his grappling will overwhelm Gouveia as he holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is a member of American Top Team so he is no slouch on the ground. I think Gouveia has a chance to win this fight and at +210 this is another great value bet to make. First Gouveia is by far the better striker in terms of punching and kicking. I really like Wilson Gouveia’s power in his kicks and punches. He is a very fast and mobile puncher and he will have a lot more power as he use to fight at light heavyweight instead of middleweight. I don’t like the way Marquardt stands in the stand up. He is too upright and he keeps his hands very low; almost at his sides. Wilson Gouveia is a fast powerful striker and if he lands a punch or kick he will KO Marquardt. I know Greg Jackson will come up with a good game plan for him but he still has to correct how low Marquardt’s hands have become. Since both fighters are very good on the ground Greg Jackson is limited to devicing a game plan. He might make Marquardt wait to strike like how Rashad Evans did against Forest Griffin at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 and Chuck Liddell at UFC 88 - Breakthrough. However, as this fight becomes more of a striking battle the tide turns to Gouveia’s favor. He also does not get enough power throwing his punches from the side and he will be fighting a very good striker. Gouveia can catch Marquardt with his hands down in this fight. Marquardt has fought most of his career in Japan where he has been bigger. He has mostly fought Japanese fighters and is accustomed to being the bigger fighter. In Japan he was able to use his striking and strength to push around fighters. He will not be the bigger fighter against Gouveia and in this fight he will not the aggressor as well. Gouveia has very lethal kicks and he will have a ton of power behind his lower leg kicks. Since Marquardt tends to keep his hands down Gouveia will fake lower leg kick and land the high kick. Marquardt’s kicks are quite sloppy. He just throws them out with very little snap. He really likes the front push kick but he throws it very slow. I see Gouveia coutering the front push kick for a hook to the head. Also Marquardt really likes the flying knee. Against shorter fighters it has worked in the past but it will not work against Gouveia who trains with very good Muay Tai fighters at ATT. Bottom Line: The problem is that Marquardt has never fought someone as big and strong as Gouveia. His ground game is very finesse and but both guys are BJJ Black Belts so they cancel each other out on the ground. If Marquardt tries to a fancy sweep or tries to pull guard Gouveia will either posture or post out and get out. He will also have a big strength advantage. Is Marquardt’s ground game better? Yes but Gouveia has enough to neutralize whatever Greg Jackson has in store for him. Wilson Gouveia is now in shape from all reports and he has upped his fighting at American Top Team. This was a question in the past but not from all scouting reports. Gouveia has been training hard for almost 4 months now and he will surprise many. The odds are too good and as a UFC sports bettor this underdos fight is too good to pass up. At +210 this is great UFC underdog bet to make. Bettors are getting good value for a powerful striker. Look for Gouveia to Win the Standup Battle for Second Round KOBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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