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Josh Koscheck (-410) vs Paulo Thiago (+330)

by Stan Leung
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February 21th, 2009 12 PM
Josh Koscheck vs Paulo Thiago
UFC Betting Pick: Josh Koscheck -410

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UFC Welterweight Fight: Josh Koscheck (-410) vs Paulo Thiago (+330)

If you are UFC sports bettor and want to bet for value do not even attempt to land a bet on the underdog in this mixed martial arts fight. The +330 betting odds for Paulo Thiago might entice bettors but I would stay away from this bet all together on the moneyline.

Competing exclusively in his native country of Brazil, the submission specialist is perfect at 10 win with no loses but Paulo Thiago has never fought outside of his country and this will be his first time in front of the big stage. He will have the jitters and fighting a top 5 welterweight is no big task.  Thiago fights out of the Constrictor Team and will be facing his biggest challenge in Josh Koscheck (12-3), an American Kickboxing Academy fighter who has fought nothing but tough opponents the past two years.


Josh Koscheck has been on a tear in the UFC and this will be his fourth fight in the 10 months. So even if he wanted to take time off he can’t because he fights so soon after one another. He hasn’t even the time to take Thiago lightly.

Striking wise there is no question that Josh Koscheck has the advantage. Once a wrestler his striking has vastly improved under Crazy Bob Cook. His striking has improved so much that he is now one of the top strikers in the UFC at 170. He went toe to toe with Georges St Pierre at UFC 74: Respect and he could not get KO’ed by Thiago Alves at UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté.


If those two top welterweights could not take out Koscheck I would give about a 2% chance that Paulo Thiago can as well. Also Paulo Thiago has never won a fight by KO or knockout. His last fight he got a victory by doctor’s stoppage.


Wrestling wise Josh Koscheck also has a huge advantage. Koscheck won all 42 of his wrestling matches, and went on to become the NCAA Division I Champion in the 174 lb weight class. In addition to being a four-time NCAA Division I All-American, Koscheck is a three-time recipient of the PSAC Wrestler of the Year award, and earned the Eastern Wrestling League Achievement Award twice. Brazil does not have any sort of wrestling in their country and Paulo Thiago will be overwhelmed but the power of Koscheck.


There is a big difference between jujitsu strength and wrestling strengthen. If you are not use to fighting a wrestler than you will have troubles.  Since Paulo Thiago has fought all of his MMA career in Brazil he will have not been able to prepare for a fighter like Koscheck.

Grappling wise Paulo Thiago is the better fighter but this is a mixed martial arts fight and there is a difference. Josh Koscheck has decent grappling skill. He trains jiujutsu under Dave Camarillo, who has formed his guerilla jiujutsu for MMA. Though not as tight as most BJJ practitioners he has had adapted basic BJJ in the world of MMA. Even though Thiago has a better ground game it will be very hard for him to take Koscheck to the ground due to his strengthen and wrestling.

Training wise, there is no doubt as to which fighter has the better training camp. Koscheck trains out of the American Kickboxing Academy with some of the best instructors and fighters like Mike Swick, Josh Thomson, Trevor Prangley, Cung Le, Cain Velasquez and Jon Fitch. The instruction team include include BJJ and judo master Dave Camarillo, Cray Bob Cook, Derek Yuen, Lynn Schultz, Ted Lucio and Javier Mendez. Fighters who have sought out training at AKA include Sean Sherk, BJ Penn, Phil Baroni, Lyoto Machida, Brandon Vera, Brock Larson and Frank Shamrock. There is no way Thiago has the level of competition to roll with on a daily basis.

Bottom Line: Most UFC bettors would think of laying a small amount on the underdog in this fight but there are better dog picks to wager on for this UFC fight card. Koscheck is always in shape and because he fights so frequently he has stayed at a high level for a while. There is not much that can hurt Koscheck and his wrestling game nullifies a lot good grapplers.


The best bet to make for this fight is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance. Five of Koscheck’s last seven fights have come by decision. He is a great fighter but will try to avoid the clinch and stay on the outside against Thiago to score points because Koscheck does not want to get into a grappling fight with Thiago because he has very good leg locks. The best bet would be to find a UFC sportsbook that will take UFC props and Parlay bets. 


If you can parlay a Koscheck victory with the fight to go the distance you will make a good profit instead of betting the money line at -410

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