UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson, UFC Handicapping, Diego Sanchez, Joe Stevenson

UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson

MMA Fighting Matchups

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez (-300) vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (+240)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 95 Sanchez vs. Stevenson
February 21th, 2009 12 PM
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson
UFC Betting Pick: Diego Sanchez -300

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UFC Lightweight Fight: Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Both Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez (19-2) and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (29-9) have similar paths to their mixed martial arts career. Both started their career in the King of the Cage MMA promotion with Stevenson the 155 lb (70 kg) KOTC champion and Sanchez the King of The Cage Welterweight Title holder. Both were winners is the Ultimate Fighter reality show with Sanchez becoming the middleweight winner for the first season of the show and Stevenson winning The Ultimate Fighter 2 welterweight tournament.

Both fighters have similar styles of fighting but the fighter who will win this fight will be the bigger fighter and that is Diego Sanchez. Diego has fought most of his career as a welterweight and even as a middleweight while Stevenson is short and stalky for his size and he is best suited as lightweight. This fight will be about size and pressure and Sanchez is the bigger fighter and the more aggressive fighter.

Diego Sanchez has a more aggressive forward striking attack and he will be able to use his reach and to back off Stevenson with his striking reach and kicks. Stevenson will not be able reach Diego with his strikes since he is the shorter limbed fighter.

On the ground both fighters are pretty even, but the edge has to go to Diego Sanchez. His ground game is very aggressive and tight. He is constantly moving his hips and going for submission attempts. His ground transition game is very good and he will be able to avoid Stevenson ground game. Stevenson is also a very good grappler and holds a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Robert Drysdale and has extensive training under Marc Laimon's Cobra Kai in Las Vegas. But due to his size he is susceptible to a rear naked choke. Because Stevenson is a smaller fight he tends to be pushed around on the ground by stronger fighters and he will give up his back.

Everyone knows to watch out for Stevenson’s Guillotine Choke and I don’t think Sanchez will not be careless enough to be caught in the choke. If this was a gi BJJ match or no gi grappling match I would give the edge to Stevenson who would not have to worry about strikes and working from his back.But this is not grappling it's mixed martial arts.

If this fight goes to the ground I can see Sanchez gaining top position and hurting Stevenson on the ground. Stevenson has a pretty active guard game and his closed guard game is not that tight because he has short legs. Sanchez will both pin Stevenson’s hips to the ground and ground and pound him out or he will use Stevenson's active guard game against him. By this I mean once he opens his guard Sanchez will stand up and be able to pass to gain side control. I see this fight similar to the ground attack by George St Pierre over BJ Penn. Also note that Diego Sanchez was a former Greg Jackson fighter like GSP is now. This fight will be won on the ground as the bigger fighter will control and beat the smaller fighter on the ground.

Wrestling wise Stevenson is a better fighter and has the power to take Sanchez down but Diego is very active and Stevenson will not be able to hold him down once he gets the takedown. Also Stevenson might be cautious due to the striking and kicking reach of Diego. Stevenson will be a lot shorter in this and his wrestling will be nullified by his shorter limbs as Sanchez will be able to shrimp out or use legs to kick back Stevenson.

Bottom Line: Diego Sanchez has only two loses in his MMA career and that was to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69: Shootout and Jon Fitch at UFC 76: Knockout. Both fighters at top 5 in the world at welterweight and his fight with Fitch was a loss by a split decision. Diego Sanchez is one of the best fighters in the world and now moving down to lightweight for a chance to dominate that division. When Diego fights he is a fighter that can fight from anywhere. He can knock you out, he can submit you, he can go the distance and he can end a fight quickly. Stevenson is not as proficient when he fights as he relies on submissions.

I like Stevenson as a fighter but he will be outmatched in this fight by a bigger stronger fighter. I see this fight being dominated by Sanchez from the start of the bell to the very end. My best bet is for this fight to go to a three round decision. I would be all over this UFC prop bet. I would also do a UFC parlay bet for the fight to go all three rounds and for Sanchez to win the fight by a three round decision. UFC sports betting wise Sanchez at -300 is not worth the price but he will win this fight. If you have money to bet I would be all over this bet. I really don’t see Stevenson beating Sanchez at all.