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Rich Franklin (Even) vs. Dan "Hollywood" Henderson (-130)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 93 Franklin vs Henderson
January 17th, 2009 8 PM
Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson
UFC Betting Pick: Dan Henderson

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UFC Light Heavyweight Fight: Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson

Rich Franklin (24-3) has had it easy in the UFC. He has been in a weak Middleweight division for some time now and when he has faced really top notch fighters like Anderson Silva he gets destroyed. Yes Franklin is one of the nicest guys in mixed martial arts and a true role model but he is a very over rated fighter as well. No one is a better spokes person for MMA than Franklin is but he has not fought the level of fighters that Henderson has and he may or may not have been a protected fight because they wanted to protect his image.

Even though he was the UFC middleweight champion, Franklin has not fought the level of fighters to be considered a great fighter. Yes he has a good record but what top level fighters has he fought in his career? The only elite fighters he has ever fought have been Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida and both fights ended in losses. Despite a 24 and 3 fight record he has not fought any high level fighter. Basically Rich Franklin was top of his class in a field of below average fighters. Just look at the list of fighters Franklin has fought.

Now once again Franklin is stepping top fight a top level fighter in Dan Hollywood Henderson (23-7). The winner of that fight is expected to lead Team USA on Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, with Michael Bisping coaching the opposing Team UK. Henderson has fought every to level fighter in the world with wins over Wanderlei Silva at PRIDE 33: The Second Coming by knock out, Vitor Belfort at PRIDE 32: The Real Deal, Kazuo Misaki at PRIDE Bushido 10, Murilo Bustamante, Akihiro Gono, Ryo Chonan, Shungo Oyama, Murilo Rua at PRIDE 17: Championship Chaos, Renzo Gracie at Renzo Gracie at Renzo Gracie at PRIDE 13: Collision Course, Renato Sobral, Carlos Newton and Allan Goes at UFC 17: Redemption

He has also fought and lost to Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. He has fought a who’s who in the world of mixed martial arts and Henderson has never been knocked out and he has fought some of the hardest strikes. Rich Franklin is supposed to be a hard striker but what if Quinton Jackson or Wanderlei Silva could not knock him out what chance does Franklin have. Striking wise Henderson has more power and his looping over hand punches will be able to connect as Franklin is not a very mobile fighter. The only chance Franklin has in this fight is to win by striking and he will not be able to land his punches because Henderson is quicker and has very good lateral movement.

Wrestling wise this fight is a mismatch. Yes Franklin has been working with Matt Hume on his wrestling game but Henderson competed for the United States in the 1992 and 1996 Summer Olympics in Greco-Roman wrestling. Franklin will not be able to take Henderson down and lacks the skills to technique to match Dangerous Dan in this category.

Grappling wise Franklin is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Jorge Gurgel. Gurgel is an over rated fighter and his grappling skills are no where near that of a black belt. Gurgel has been teaching Franklin BJJ that means he is learning bad habits and bad techniques. If this fight goes to the ground there is no way Franklin can submit Henderson. If people like Renzo Gracie, Renato Sobral or Ricardo Arona could not submit him you think a Franklin can?

Bottom Line: Decision Dan is a high level fighter that is hard to KO and hard to submit. This is a great UFC prop bet to bet on as Henderson wins most of his fights by decision and he is a smart fighter that won take chances if he knows he is wining the fight. Out of his 23 victories over 50% have been by decision. Franklin will not be able to finish Henderson and Henderson will score more points in the stand up and takedowns due to his superior wrestling abilities. This fight is a perfect parlay to make for Henderson to win and for this fight to go to the decision and for Henderson to win by decision.  This fight will expose Franklin as one dimensional qualities as a fighter that can not step up to fight high level fighters. Sports betting wise bet heavily on Henderson to take this fight to Franklin who will not be able to match intensity and pressure from Henderson. Can Franklin KO Henderson? Unlikely. Can Franklin take Henderson down to score points? Not a chance. Can Franklin submit Henderson? Not with his grappling skills.

Betting wise at -130 this is a great bet to make as I though the odds would be much more in favor of Henderson. Because Franklin is such a marketable figure and has had easy fights in the UFC his opening sports betting line is very soft and good for online UFC bettors that want to bet on Henderson. I would have opened the UFC betting odds at -160or -180 in favor of Henderson so this is great bet to make.

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