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UFC 93 Franklin vs Henderson
January 17th, 2009 8 PM
Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares
UFC Betting Pick: Rousimar Palhares
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetUS.com
UFC Middleweight Fight: Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares
One the more lop-sided fights of the night at UFC 93 still has some betting value as Jeremy Horn prepares to enter the octagon to take on Rousimar Palhares in a middleweight clash that shouldn’t last long.
Horn has a career record of 80-18-5 with a 7-6 mark with the UFC and has notable wins over Chuck Liddell, Chael Sonnen, Josh Burkman, Dean Lister, and Forrest Griffin, among others. Close to 50 of his wins have come via submission with close to 20 of them being KO or TKO where Horn was able to use his wrestling advantage to get on top and pound out his opponent.
Unfortunately, both of those strengths will be negated by Palhares, an 8-2 fighter out of Brazil who is smaller but ripped with muscle and is going to be a major problem for the lankier Horn. Palhares is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and has better grappling skills than Horn and his size will make it nearly impossible for him to be taken down. Palhares does have 2 losses but his most recent one, a UFC 88 decision loss to Dan Henderson, was due to Palhares’ inability to take down the former Olympic-level wrestler and get him to the point where he could utilize his strong grappling game. Against Horn, the challenge is much less and the Brazilian should have no problem getting Horn on his back.
Once there, Palhares should be able to utilize his world-class submission skills to secure the victory. Jeremy Horn has lost 8 times by submission and another 8 by decision and has shown an issue with high-level grapplers in the past with notable losses to Dean Lister, Anderson Silva, Babalu Sobral, Ricardo Arona, and Frank Shamrock. Once this hits the ground, this fight is likely to be similar to the last Lister fight in which Horn was bested by guillotine choke at the 3:52 mark of round 1 at June of 2008. The difference between Lister and Palhares is that the guy that Horn is fighting this time out is even stronger and any plans of a wrestling clinic put on by horn can be extinguished with one look at the Brazilian’s compact and powerful frame.
The only hope for Horn to win this fight is to get a standing knockout of some sort but Palhares ate shot after shot from the more-powerful Henderson and did not look shaken at all. Horn also has an incredible chin (just 2 KO/TKO losses ever) so this one is likely to be decided on the mat where Palhares just has a better ground game and will likely be on top for the majority of the action so the decision victory will be safe if Horn does not yield to the choke and does a good job at fighting off the superior submission grappling skills.
Bottom Line: Palhares is a -400 favorite at BetUS.com and although there is only one higher-priced favorite on the fight card for UFC 93, Martin Kampmann at -500, there is still value on that number. This one should not be close and it will take a miracle (or an injury I suppose) for Horn to walk out of the octagon with a victory when this one is done. Many don’t like playing steep odds like this but this one is safe and at the worst is a good bet to use in a parlay to increase the payout.
Jeremy Horn has an incredible fighting spirit and solid all-around skills but when you compare the styles of these two fighters, Horn’s just doesn’t matchup. Standing, Horn can’t hurt him. On the ground, Horn can’t submit him. With his wrestling, Horn can’t take him down. No matter how you examine this one, it’s going to be all Palhares and that is where you’ll want to place your money on Saturday night in the easiest fight of the night to predict.
Palhares via 1st round armbar
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