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UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
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Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierceby Stan Leung |
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UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce Aside from Jake Shields, no other fighter in mixed martial arts is as under rated as Jon Fitch (24-3). He is the consummate well rounded fighter with great standup as well as grappling skills. He is the kind of fighter that trains hard everyday and is focused on fighting all the time. Fitch is the best welterweight in the UFC aside from Georges St-Pierre—if it was not for the presence of St-Pierre, the talk would be all about Fitch. Unfortunately for him, St Pierre is at such at level that he overshadows all the other welterweights. Fitch will be going against Mike Pierce (10-1), a very good up and coming fighter who is getting his shot for the spot light after his UFC debut where he defeated the former WEC #1 Contender Brock Larson via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 19. However, Larson is no Jon Fitch, and Fitch is going to roll right through Pierce. If Pierce is to become a better MMA fighter he will need to up his training. He is currently in Vancouver Washington with the Brave Legion team and trains with fellow UFC fighter Rick Story, who is really the only notable there. Fitch on the other hand is at the American Kick Academy and he rolls with the likes of Josh Koscheck, Paul Buentello, Mike Swick, Cung Le, Cain Velasquez and Josh Thomson on a regular basis. Not to mention, he has also been taught by mentionables such as Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and judo master Dave Camarillo, Bob Cook, Derek Yuen, Lynn Schultz, Ted Lucio and Javier Mendez. Coming from the Pacific Northwest, Pierce has a good wrestling base and earned his stripes with the team at Portland State University. He is a very strong fighter and has used his wrestling skills to win most of his fights. Though he has overpowered fighters in the past with wrestling, he is stepping in with Jon Fitch, who like Pierce, also use wrestling as his basis for mixed martial arts. But to be fair, Pierce is only at the level Fitch was five years ago. Fitch is a much better and more accomplished wrestler than Pierce. Fitch was a member of the Purdue wrestling team and was a four-year letterman. Under the tutelage of assistant coach Tom Erikson, Fitch eventually became the team captain of his squad. Tom “Big Cat” Erikson was a pioneer in MMA and no doubt passed onto Fitch the basics of wresting in such a venue. It was from Erikson that Fitch learned that to be good in the MMA, one needed more than just wrestling skills. Unfortunately for Pierce, he did not have Erikson at his side and has not evolved much beyond his university days while Fitch has gone onto the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) and has obtained his black belt in Guerilla jiu-jitsu under Dave Camarillo, the founder of Guerilla jiu-jitsu, a combination of Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo geared toward mixed martial arts. When it comes to grappling skills, Peirce does not have any which is evident by his inability to submit a fighter in his career. One thing to note though, Piece has heavy hands and does have five KO’s out of ten MMA wins—however, he has never faced a top level fighter. Fitch on the other hand has fought some of the best fighters in the 170 pound division and was on a 16 fight winning streak before he lost to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 87: Seek and Destroy. St-Pierre threw everything he had at Fitch and though he was rocked badly many times over, St-Pierre was not able to knock him out. There is a long list of fighters that could not beat or KO Fitch such as Diego Sanchez at UFC 76: Knockout, Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night: Stout vs. Fisher, Luigi Fioravanti at UFC 68: The Uprising and Thiago Alves at UFC: Ultimate Fight Night 5. If these guys could not take out or KO Fitch, it is unlikely Pierce could be able to do it. Pierce lacks ground game and Fitch will use his superior wrestling skills to take Pierce down. Once this fight hits the ground he will be able to use his strong wrestling base and jiu-jitsu to control him on the ground. Bottom Line: The opening sports bet lines will be quite steep and the sportsbook odds makers will be fairly pretty large. I assume the betting lines will open up at -300 or -350 in favor of Fitch. In most cases I would stay away from this bet but to me, this fight is a lock. The lines should open up at -450 but most sports betting website will not open up with too large of a line as no one will take Fitch. Remember, sportsbooks make money on the juice and they need to have bets on both sides in order to profit. If the UFC betting lines are at -300 I would lay some heavy coin on this fight for a Fitch victory as he is a superior fighter than Pierce in almost every aspect. I do not see any way for Pierce to win this fight. Fitch will set up his shots with a take down and once he accomplishes this, he will use his power to take Pierce down and control him on the ground. He will use his superior top game to ground and pound Pierce and once he rolls away from him, he will submit him with a rear naked choke. Look for Fitch to Beat Pierce with a Second Round Rear Naked ChokeBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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