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Mike “Quick” Swick (-200) vs. Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (+163)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera
November 14, 2009 7 GMT
Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy
UFC Betting Pick: Mike Swick (-200)

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Welterweight bout: Mike “Quick” Swick (-200) vs. Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (+163)

The sportsbook odds makers will opened up with very soft UFC betting lines for Mike “Quick” Swick (16-2) who should be a much larger money line favorite. Most line makers are clueless when it comes to setting mixed martial arts lines which leads me to conclude that Swick got a soft betting line, especially since UFC 105 is taking place in the hometown of Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (22-6).

Hardy won as an underdog in his last fight with Marcus Davis at UFC 99: The Comeback. Hardy made this fight personal by insulting and frustrating Davis—he called Davis a fake Irishman and commented that his website looked like a St. Patrick’s Day gift shop disaster zone and he encouraged fans to post on the internet Photoshopped pictures of Davis in suggestive homosexual poses. Though this approach may have worked with Davis, it will not with Swick and this fight will be over pretty quick—no pun intended.


The UFC sports betting lines should be very close and regardless of what they are, I would bet heavily on Swick to beat Hardy. Swick is a better all round fighter, who is more experienced, bigger and stronger, has a better ground game and very fast hands.

The only advantage Hardy has over Swick is in kicking. Hardy had been training in Tae Kwon Do since the age of six years and is a black belt, however, of all the martial arts Tae Kwon Do training is the least favourable to have. Tae Kwon Do kicks are mainly for show and nothing else. They are barely adaptable on the street let alone in a MMA fight—the typical Tae Kwon Do stance is too wide making their kicks an easy read.

When it comes to striking Hardy is quite proficient, however, I can see him getting picked apart by a fighter that is more technical than himself as his “style” is more barroom brawler than anything. Though he may be powerful, he is not technically sound and raw power can only get him so far. Swick has very good striking skills and his MMA camp has some of the best strikers with whom he trains daily. Swick is the bigger fighter and his reach advantage will no doubt confuse Hardy. He will be able to jab with his reach and push Hardy back until he can land the straight right hand.

Swick trains at American Kickboxing Academy which is one of the best MMA clubs in the world. Some of the best MMA fighters in the game today also train here— Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Paul Buentello, Cung Le, Cain Velasquez and Josh Thomson just to name a few. AKA is run by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo master Dave Camarillo and “Crazy” Bob Cook who are currently among the best trainers in the world. Hardy trains at Team Rough House in Nottingham, England. A virtually unknown team whose most prominent members are Hardy, UFC fighters Paul Daley, Andre Winner and Nick Osipczak as well as Jim Wallhead, Dean Amasinger, and Lee Livingstone. Not the most dynamic nor experienced guys to train with. Though Hardy has had some time at Xtreme Couture and the Wildcard Boxing Gym he really needs to devote himself to a respectable club outside England.

Grappling. Hardy has just received his purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Eddie Bravo. Though this may appear as quite an accomplishment Bravo has been known to “give” away belts to those who are willing to pay for them. His style of Jiu-Jitsu has been called by some as the latest wave yet not many have the flexibility to actually pull off some of the moves like the rubber guard. Any good grappler with solid posture and base can nullify Bravo’s Jiu-Jitsu style. Nevertheless it is interesting to note that Hardy has barely spent any time in Bravo’s camp yet he has a purple belt in this form of martial arts.

Though Swick’s Jiu-Jitsu is not known to be tight, I do not doubt his Jiu-Jitsu skills. He is a student of Dave Camarillo who teaches an effective form of Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu. Camarillo has trained with world class Judokas, Jiu-Jitsu practitioners, champions in both Wrestling and Kickboxing as well as MMA fighters. He holds a black belt and has competed at the world level in both Judo and Jiu-Jitsu. Camarillo is the author and creator of Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu, the most aggressive Jiu-Jitsu style in the world. His Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu has been adapted for mixed martial arts where he trains his fighters to be effective on the ground. Swick is very good at fighting from his back and if Hardy was to find him in this position, no doubt he would be thinking of a knock out and attempt to ground and pound where his wild punches would only leave him open for a triangle or arm bar.

Bottom Line: Hardy is not anywhere near the fighter that Swick is. Swick has very fast hands and is the bigger and more skilled fighter. Hardy will be overmatched and his lack of skill will be very apparent in this fight. At -200 this online sports bet is a steal. I would have opened the betting lines at around -250.

This is an ideal moneyline bet to wager on and I would lay some serious coin on a Swick victory. Swick is faster and will be able to land some very quick and powerful shots. Hardy will not be able to stand abrade and he will try to take this fight to the ground. If he gets Swick on his back he will try to punch but will be triangle chocked or arm barred in no time.

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