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UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera
November 14, 2009 7 GMT
Andre Winner vs Rolando Delgado
UFC Betting Pick: Andre Winner
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetFair
Lightweight bout: Andre Winner vs Rolando “The Crazy Cuban” Delgado
Andre Winner (12-3) was my pick to win it all when he was cast as a member on SpikeTV's The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom. I picked him at the start of the year to win the UFC six figure contract, however, his loss at UFC: The Ultimate Finale 9 to Ross Pearson by unanimous decision proved me wrong.
He will be fighting Rolando “The Crazy Cuban” Delgado (8-4) who in reality has no business being a Mixed Martial Arts fighter. Delgado is by all accounts a fake MMA fighter. He claims to be a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu yet the circumstances surrounding it is very suspect. When asked by coach Frank Mir of The Ultimate Fighter 8 as to the amount of time Delgado trained in Maceio Brazil to earn his belt his reply was “one week”. Though he has active hips and moves very well on the ground one can quickly surmise he is a high blue belt—at best. Though Winner is not a black belt either he does have a decent ground game. He is very quick, moves well, but like Delgado, he is not very tight with his game.
When it comes to striking Winner has the advantage. His strikes are good technically and there is a lot of power behind his hands. He trains at Team Rough House in England with some decent strikers, however, the guys there are known to be barroom brawlers more than anything but are strong power hitters nevertheless like Paul Daley and Dan Hardy. On the other hand Delgado has very weak strikes. He is a tall lanky fighter with little power and no striking technique. He tends to push his punches and does not use his hips to pack power behind his punches. If this fight stays standing, Winner can use his power and striking ability to seriously hurt Delgado.
Bottom Line: Both fighters are still unproven but you have to like Winner’s athletic ability. In all seriousness, Delgado really should not be in the UFC. His presence here is only due to the fact that he was on The Ultimate Fighter tv show where he made a bit of a name for himself and that he is a cheap filler on the fight card. Winner will have an easy time of Delgado and will strike him and hurt him on the standup.
Delgado will try to turn this fight into a ground game but his grappling is so unimpressive that even if he is able to take Winner down his side mount, half guard, full guard and ground game is so loose that Winner will be able to get out with no problem. If Winner gains top on the ground he will also have the advantage as Delgado does not have a tight guard—his bottom game is very loose and he will play open or spider guard or may even use his long legs in an attempt to apply a rubber guard.
Since both fighters are relatively new and as neither fighter has fought high quality opponents, the online betting lines should be fairly close. If I was setting the lines I would have Winner at around -250, however, Delgado has fought tougher opponents which would lead to opening odds being closer. Nevertheless, Winner should be the UFC money line betting favorite and I would lay a huge chunk on Winner for a victory.
In all likelihood this fight will stay in the stand up but Delgado will try to pull guard and take this fight to the ground. Delgado does not have the skills in the ground game to be tight and to submit Winner. Nevertheless, Winner is stronger and more effective in the ground and pound. No matter what the lines are bet a lot on Winner.
Look for Winner to Knock Out Delgado in a Very Impressive Fashion
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