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UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun
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Yushin “Thunder”Okami (-225) vs. Chael Sonnen (+185)by Stan Leung |
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UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Middleweight bout: Yushin “Thunder”Okami (-225) vs. Chael Sonnen (+185) If there is a mixed martial arts fighter that gets no respect it is Chael Sonnen (34-10). When this fight was first announced I thought the UFC betting lines would open up with him as the betting favorite so you can imagine my surprise when I found out the lines were in favour of the underdog, Yshin Okami (27-4). Okami is currently the #2 ranked middleweight in the world according to Sherdog and #3 according to MMAWeekly—but we really need to wonder why. Though I respect the abilities of Okami, he is not even ranked in our top 10 middleweights. In our opinion, there are better fighters out there than Okami such as like Dan Henderson, Vitor Belfort, Yoshihiro Akiyama, Nathan Marquardt, Rich Franklin, Demain Maia, and Chael Sonnen to name a few. Personally, I believe Sonnen to be a top ten while Okami, a top 15 at best. I think Okami is very good in all areas but not great. He will come into this fight as the bigger and more dominate striker but he will have problems with Sonnen’s wrestling ability. He has yet to take a top level fighter and has lost to such notables as Rich Franklin UFC 72: Victory, Jake Shields, Falaniko Vitale and Amar Suloev. However, he has had his moments such as with his win over Dean Lister at UFC 92: Ultimate 2008, Evan Tanner at UFC 82: Pride of a Champion, Jason MacDonald at UFC 77: Hostile Territory, Mike Swick at UFC 69: Shootout, Rory Singer at UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz, Kalib Starnes at UFC 64: Unstoppable and Alan Belcher at UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral. If there is one thing you can count on with Okami’s fight game is that he is Mr. Predictable—he always beats the guys he should beat and he always loses to the guys he should lose to. The one exemption was his victory over Anderson Silva which he only won due to a disqualification with an illegal kick on Silva’s part. Sonnen is a top level fighter so if logic serves correct, Okami should lose this fight. That is why the sports betting lines are so great. The odds makers are only looking at Okami’s striking abilities and not the whole picture. This is another case where the lines makers do not really know MMA. They are only looking at his fight with Demian Maia where he lost by triangle choke in the first round at UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson and his decision victory versus Dan Miller at UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida. Sonnen beat Dan Miller at UFC 98 on May 23 in a unanimous decision where he came in as a late replacement for Okami when Okami sustained a torn ligament while training. Sonnen took the fight on 22 days notice and lost 36 pounds to compete. Needless to say he did not perform well and because of this, Sonnen gets a low betting line. This is good for sports bettors but one must remember that Okami has not fought in almost a year and he is one of the slowest starters in MMA. When it come to striking, Okami is a much better striker that Sommen. He has good hands and can use his strong powerful leg kicks to hurt Sonnen. Okami has the ability to win this fight in a stand up due to his size and reach advantage but this is not a kickboxing match. Though Okami has very good leg kicks and can use his reach to push back Sonnen, this is MMA and Sonnen has a very good wrestling game. Okami has fought well against good grapplers like Dean Lister but he has not gone against high caliber wrestlers such as Sonnen before—the last time he faced a decent wrester in Jake Shields, he was throughly controlled on the ground. Sonnen is formally a two time National Champion, NCAA All-American, and was a US Olympic team alternate. Okami will be concerned with Sonnen’s takedowns so he will not kick as much as he normally does, because if he is not careful, Sonnen can easily go for a takedown when Okami is off balance. Once Sonnen gets Okami to the ground, Sonnen has the ability to hold him down to ground and pound him out. Bottom Line: I am shocked to see that Okami is such a huge UFC betting favorite and at -225 that is a huge difference in the money line. Okami has not been in the octagone in almost a year and though he was scheduled for a rematch with Anderson Silva for the middleweight title at UFC 90, he was forced to drop out of the bout due to a broken hand. When he meets up with Sonnen, Okami will have a lot of ring rust. Okami is a notoriously slow starter and with his lengthy lay off, he will be even slower—do not look for him to come around until the second or third round. In six of his last eight fights, Okami has gone to a decision. Aside from the steep underdog betting lines, another bet to go with is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance and for Sonnen to win by decision. The first round will be a write off as Okami will come out slow and Sonnen will get the decision in the fight round. In the second, Sonnen will get the takedown points and win the battle on the ground--he will also get the decision for the second round. In the third, Okami will start to control of the fight and will win this round, however, it will be too late.
Sonnen wins the Fight by a three Round Decision – Take the Prop Bet and Sonnen on the MoneylineBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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