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Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-450) vs Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+300)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun
October 24th 2009 7 PM
Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Rua
UFC Betting Pick: Mauricio Rua (+300)

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Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-450) vs Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+300)

On a purely sports betting angle a +300 UFC bet for a former top pound for pound fighter and PRIDE Fighting Championship's 2005 Middleweight (205lb) Grand Prix champion is a bet worth taking.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-3) has been through some tough times of late with injuries and in adjusting to the UFC. Rua has wins over Chuck Liddell at UFC 97: Redemption, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona at PRIDE Final Conflict 2005, Cyrille Diabate, Kevin Randleman at PRIDE 32: The Real Deal and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2005. While the current buzz in mixed martial arts is about Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (15-0) people have forgotten that Rua was once the most feared fighter in the world.

Since moving to the UFC Rua has had a tough go of it. His first fight was against Forrest Griffin at UFC 76: Knockout where he was thoroughly dominated. It was later revealed that his poor cardiovascular fitness was due to a knee injury he suffered during training for this fight. He then spent the next year and a half getting back into fight shape for a rematch with Mark Coleman in Dublin, Ireland at UFC 93: Franklin vs. Henderson. Though his knee may have been healed, his lack of cardio was apparent once again. At UFC 97: Redemption, however, he destroyed Chuck Liddell and looked very much like the fighter he once was. If the same warrior shows up at UFC 104 he will be able to take anyone in the world.

Lyoto Machida is a very good fighter and is the one to beat in the MMA 205 division, but I am not convinced that he is as good as he is made out to be. Though he may currently have the belt, one must remember that he was once considered to be the most boring and uninspiring fighter in MMA.

I keep thinking of UFC 84: Ill Will and his fight with Tito Ortiz—Machida is an elusive fighter that likes to counter strike but Tito Ortiz almost had him in a triangle choke. Machida received a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Nino Schembri and trains with Anderson Silva and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, however, in my opinion, Machida’s ground game is still very suspect even though he is a black belt.

Grappling wise Rua is the superior. He has great leg locks and is a very good top game fighter. Though both combatants are black belts in jiujutsu Machida’s ground game tends to be a little sloppy—he was almost finished by Ortiz in a triangle choke and though he was victorious against Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79: Nemesis, it was only after three sloppy attempts on three different occasions was he able to take Sokoudjou in an arm triangle.


Rua is a much smoother grappler and his top and bottom transition game is very slick. He has very good leg locks and can fight well on his back or from the top. If this turns into a ground fight Rua will fare well as Machida is much more comfortable in the stand up than the ground.

Striking is an interesting point to consider in this match as we have yet to see Machida get hit. If Rua manages to land one on him, Machida will go down—but first he needs to break down Machida’s striking. Machida has an awkward karate stance where he likes to lean back and counter striker—when a fighter comes in he really has to extend himself because he leans so far back. If he misses, he switches his balance to his front foot while his opponent is still off balance and comes in for the kill.

Machida’s type of fighting style is confusing and throws off opponents as it is very much like a point scoring grab in karate or Tai Kwan Do. This has been very effective for him in the past but Machida will be facing a high caliber striker in Rua.

 
Rua has great Muay Thai kicks and uses his lower legs kicks to set up his strikes. Muay Thai is a better from of striking when compared to karate as the kicks in Muay Thai are short and very powerful and do not require a huge wind up. Machida uses a unique style that combines elements from his diverse training--he has a good fighting stance for point scoring which he has translated and adapted to mixed martial arts very well.

Often described as "elusive," Machida relies on cautious and precise counter-strikes that frustrates his opponents into making mistakes. However, when compared with a Muay Thai fighter, a karate fighter will lose in most cases. Rua begun his Muay Thai training at the age of 15, and is more experienced in Muay Thai than anyone Machida has ever fought. Though Machida has squared off with Thiago Silva who is also Muay Thai trained, he is no where near as good as Rua. Machida may be good in the stand up and elusive, we still do not know whether or not he can take a punch.

Bottom Line: Machida has only fought one high level fighter—Rashad Evans at UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida. Though he dominated that fight, Evans is not a proficient striker. Rua is a very good striker and will not be looking for a takedown like Evans did in that fight. If Rua is in shape and has trained well for this match, he will be able to land some good kicks and if he gains control of the clinch, Machida will be in trouble.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Machida but we still need to see if he is the real deal.  I am willing to wager and take the underdog bet, especially at +300. Do not forget that Rua was once in the same position just a few years ago.

This fight will be slow as both combatants will be very tentative. In a karate versus Muay Thai fight the karate fighter leans back and tries not to get hit. He waits for his opportunity and will only strike his opponent when he is vulnerable. But a muay thai fighter does not lose his position as their kicks are short and quick. Point to note—that is why there are more Muay Thai fighters in MMA than karate fighters.

When it comes to sport betting, Machida should definitely be a favorite, but when the UFC betting odds are so much in favor of him, the smart play is on Shogun. I believe we will see the Rua of yesterday and he will start to take control of the fight near the second round after he has figured out Machida. Bet heavily on this fight for a +300 victory. A +300 fighter has never been a top pound for pound fighter and former champion.

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