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Cain Velasquez (-290) vs. Ben Rothwell (+230)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun
October 24th 2009 7 PM
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
UFC Betting Pick: Ben Rothwell (+230)

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Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez (-290) vs. Ben Rothwell (+230)

Is Cain Velasquez (6-0) the next big thing in the mixed martial arts heavyweight division? I believe him to be but with only six MMA matches to date he still has a long way to go. He will be fighting “Big” Ben Rothwell (36-6) who is a veteran in MMA and has been a top level heavyweight for quite some time now.

In the co-feature at UFC 104, two of the top young heavyweight contenders in the sport will clash, as unbeaten Cain Velasquez takes on former IFL star Ben Rothwell in what promises to be one of the most memorable bouts of 2009. 

Ben Rothwell is a bigger fighter who is more experienced and has gone up against high caliber fighters such as Andrei Arlovski at Affliction: Banned, Ricco Rodriguez, Krzysztof Soszynski, Travis Fulton, Roy Nelson, Dan Bobish, Mike Whitehead and Tim Sylvia—Velasquez has yet to meet a top level fighter in the ring. His last fight at UFC 99 versus Cheick Kongo was quite disappointing. Velasquez was rocked badly in all three rounds and though he was able to take Kongo down for over four minutes in each of those rounds, he was not able to finish him off.

Velasquez is a high level wrestler and controlled most of the ground battle, however, he was not able to finish which surprised many. Kongo is not known for his ground game and someone with Velasquez's background should have been able to easily ground and pound Kongo. If Velasquez was not able to overcome a fighter with no ground fighting experience, I do not see him being able to finish Rothwell who is a well rounded fighter.

Cain Velasquez will have his hands full with Rothwell. Many will go with Velasquez because of the hype surrounding him—the UFC has him staged as the next big thing in the heavyweight division. He is still unproven with only six MMA fights while Rothwell has cut his teeth in many years learning the trade—Rothwell has 36 fights to his credit and Velasquez only has 6. With all the hype and marketing surrounding Velasquez he opened up at a whopping -290 with most online sportsbooks—there is no way Rothwell should be a +230 underdog.

There has been a lot of marketing buzz and hype touting Velasquez as the second coming but if you are a hard core MMA, fan you know what Rothwell is all about. Rothwell has paid his dues and has learned the craft of MMA—Velasquez still has to prove himself as a fighter. The jury is still out on whether Velasquez is going to be a champion. I believe he is a good fighter, but on what basis do we say he is the #1 contender in the UFC heavyweight division? Rothwell has been around the game and has proven himself to be a very good fighter, #10 in fact according to Sherdog in July 2008.

With Rothwell, Velasquez will not be able to bully and pressure him like he did his other opponents. He was able to pick apart Kongo because Kongo has no wrestling nor grappling skills. Though he was rocked, Kongo was one dimensional and Velasquez was able to prevail in the end—this will not happen with Rothwell.

Rothwell has a good wrestling base coming out of the Miltetch camp. Though Velasquez is a more accomplished wrestler being a former two time All-American collegiate wrestler from Arizona State and a Junior College National Champ at Iowa Central Community College, Rothwell will still be able to counter the smaller fighter with sprawls. If Velasquez shoots in and Rothwell sprawls, it will be very hard for Velasquez to take him down.

If Velasquez comes in for a wrestling shot he can be hit and hit hard—this was apparent in his last fight with Kongo. Velasquez showed flaws in his stand up as he was dropped twice in the first round and near the start of the second and third rounds by Kongo's strikes. Velasquez is considered to be a devastating striker with five KO’s in his first six fights, however, when he battled the equally impressive striker Kongo, Velasquez was rocked and hit easily and hard.

Rothwell is a good striker and has a lot of power behind his punches. Unlike the others Velasquez has encountered thus far, he will not be able to use his size and striking power to take Rothwell down. Lets face it, knocking out five average fighters is very different from knocking out five high caliber fighters. Remember, Rothwell has fought notables such as Ricco Rodriguez, Krzysztof Soszynski, Travis Fulton, Roy Nelson, Dan Bobish, Mike Whitehead and Tim Sylvia so he has definitely been there, done that.

One intangible in this fight is the fact that Rothwell was set to meet Chase Gormley at Affliction Trilogy on August 1, 2009, before Affliction ceased MMA promotions. This means he has been in high level training mode for some time now. From 2005 to 2007 Ben Rothwell was on a 11 fight win streak and in three years Velasquez fought only six times. In that 11 fight streak Rothwell had nine wins by KO, two submissions by kimura and keylock and one win by decision proving he has a handle on all aspects of mixed martial arts. Rothwell has been fighting since the age of 14 and professionally since 2001.

From a striking point of view I would say this fight is even. As stated earlier, Velasquez still needs to prove his striking prowess as it was quite unimpressive in his last fight. If that was Rothwell and he rocked Velasquez he would have pushed off and not allowed to be taken down. He than would have the experience and skill to finish him off unlike Kongo who has very poor wrestling and grappling skills.  Though Velasquez may have more power, Rothwell is technically a better striker and is more experienced. This, combined with the fact that Rothwell is taller, will throw Velasquez off his game.

When it comes to grappling, Velasquez is the better wrestler but he is also the smaller fighter. Though he has the skills necessary to control Rothwell and even he take him to the ground, he was barely able to hold down Kongo in their fight and Rothwell is a better grappling and wrestling than Kongo. Rothwell has very good hip movements and will be able to shrimp out on his back, however, if Rothwell gets top position he has the base and size to hold Velasquez down for a ground and pound. Velasquez has received much praise for his wrestling but do not forget that Rothwell trains with Pat Miletich at his wrestling based Miletich Martial Arts in Iowa.

Bottom Line: Velasquez is a fighter that likes to finish his fights early. If Rothwell can endure the first two minutes of the all out onslaught, the flight will turn in his favour. This is an underdog bet that is too much to pass up on. I respect Velasquez as a fighter but do not think he has the right stuff at the moment—in two or three years he will be someone to reckon with but not today.

At +230 with most sportsbooks this bet is too good to pass up on, especially against a fighter who comes from a good camp, trains with high level fighters, has fought for over nine years as a pro in MMA, has a good wrestling base, and has definitely proven himself in small venues as well as big pro events. Now does this sound like a +230 fighter? Rothwell has been ranked in the 10 ten while Velasquez may be a top ten fighter someday. As a UFC bettor this is a fight that you can’t pass up.

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