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UFC 103 Franklin vs. Belfort
September 19th 2009 7 PM
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca
UFC Betting Pick: Tyson Griffin (-250)
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Lightweight bout: Tyson Griffin -250 vs. Hermes Franca +195
Tyson Griffin (13-2) is a beast and is one of the best lightweights in the UFC. He has immense energy and will overwhelm Hermes Franca (19-7). In terms of sports betting, this fight is a no brainer.
Hermes Franca may have been grappling skills but he is not a complete fighter. He has faced two fighters with a style similar to Tyson Griffin and has lost to both—Frank Edgar at UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Irvin and Sean Sherk at UFC 73: Stacked in 2007. Franca is not a pressure fighter. Though he may like to dictate the fight, he crumbles when he is confronted by a pressure fighter.
Griffin thrives in a high paced mixed martial arts environment. He is full of energy and is constantly pushing forward. He has gone up against top ranked guys such as Sean Sherk at UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté, Marcus Aurelio at UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin, Gleison Tibau at UFC 81: Breaking Point, Thiago Tavares at UFC 76: Knockout, Clay Guida at UFC 72: Victory and Frank Edgar at UFC 67: All or Nothing. Griffin has also come across fighters similar to Franca such as like Marcus Aurelio and Gleison Tibau both of whom he reigned over.
On a skill level, both fighters are fairly even—in fact, Franca may actually have better striking skills than Griffin as he is technically sound, has a decent over hand punch and has very good power. Franca has six knockout victories throughout his career and even KO’ed Caol Uno at UFC 44: Undisputed. Though his boxing is very technical, he has short arms and will have a hard time reaching Griffin due to his limited range. Even though Franca is a better striker, he will not be able to hit Griffin because Griffin is constantly on the move. Both fighters have a good overhand punches but the difference is Griffin will be able to land his blows while Franca will not.
When it comes to grappling, Franca is the superior. He has a black belt in jiu-jitsu and is a very good grappler. Though he may be technically stronger, he will need to content with a high pressure fighter like Griffin who is always on the move. There is no way Griffin will be able to submit him but he has enough jujitsu defense to scramble and sprawl out of any submission attempts. When Franca fought Sean Sherk and Frank Edgar, both fighters were able to use their wrestling background to base out and nullify any attempts. As Griffin has a style similar to both men, he will be able to do the same thing. He will frustrate and scramble out of any submission attempts by Franca and will use his strength and power to dictate the ground game with his ground and pound.
Bottom Line: Hermes Franca is not the type of fighter that is likely to improve his game any time soon. He is one to stick to what he knows and will not improve on aspects of his fight unless it is absolutely necessary. He is quite the stubborn fighter and was a member of the American Top Team until fell out with them and started his own camp.
On the other hand, Tyson Griffin trains at Xtreme Couture where he has a number of top level guys on his side including Randy Couture. Franca does not have the support Griffin does in his camp and will not come into this fight prepared for Griffin’s aggressive style of fighting. Griffin will put the pressure on Franca for the entire bout and his constant pressure will push Franca back and on his heels the entire fight. UFC sport betting wise,
-250 is a little to steep to wager on but I like to wager on a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance. Griffin will out pressure Franca and beat him down in every round but Franca does have the skill to survive. The best bet to make is to parlay the moneyline and take the prop bet to maximize the a better payout.
Look for Griffin to Win by Out Pressuring Franca for a 3 Round Decision
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