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Rich “Ace” Franklin (-165) vs. Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort (+135)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 103 Franklin vs. Belfort
September 19th 2009 7 PM
Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort
UFC Betting Pick: Vitor Belfort (+135)

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Catchweight (195 lb) bout: Rich Franklin (-165) vs. Vitor Belfort (+135)

Attention all betting enthusiasts, this is the perfect fight in which to bet on the underdog as Vitor Belfort opened up on most online sportsbooks at +135. All in all Belfort is the complete fighter with perfect technique and at +135 this fight is a steal as Rich Franklin is a fan favourite—he is the face and ambassador of the UFC and the UFC sports betting odds reflect this.

At 18-8 Vitor Belfort is back in the UFC. The Phenom has been on a rocky road of late not only in terms of this mixed martial arts career but in his personal life as well. With all that behind him Belfort is back and looks to be what many believed him to be at one time or another—one of the best fighters in the world.

To get where he currently is, Belfort has needed to work through a very devastating personal tragedy. In January 2004, Vitor’s sister, Priscila, was kidnapped and despite a ransom being paid, she was never heard from again. It was not until August 2007 that any arrests were made. He has since changed training teams to Xtreme Couture and with the help of his former adversary Randy Couture, has had his game revamped and has rededicated himself to MMA.

He has been at the top of his game with impressive wins over Terry Martin at Affliction: Banned and a brutal KO over top ten middleweight Matt Lindland at Affliction: Day of Reckoning. Belfort’s striking is clean he will overwhelm Franklin with his pure technique. Belfort’s jab is quick and crisp and it is that jab combined with his tight compact striking that he was able to set up the big shots against Lindland. Franklin’s striking is wide open and he leaves spots unguarded. Belfort will be able take advantage of this and expose Franklin’s weakness.

At middleweight Belfort is a legitimate threat to Anderson Silva and fighting at catchweight versus Rich Franklin he does not need to cut weight and will come into this fight ready. Since moving down to middleweight Belfort has become faster, smoother and sharper. He is accustomed to fighting and striking against heavier fighters in the 205 light heavyweight division and now at 195 or middleweight, he is much more powerful and all the more faster.

Never a big fan of Rich “Ace” Franklin (25-4) with his unassuming style, I find him to be another well marketed fighter who is not entirely complete—though he has good power and great cardio, there is something about his MMA that is slightly ‘off’. It was announced on July 20, 2009 that Rich Franklin would headline UFC 103 against Dan Henderson, however, this was changed on July 31, 2009 to Franklin vs Belfort. As Belfort is technically a better striker and superior grappler, this was the worst possible matchup for Franklin.

One thing that Belfort does not do enough of is use his natural grappling ability. He was one of Carlson Gracie’s best students and devotees to the extent that he even contemplated in changing his name to Gracie at one time or other as Carlson’s song. He obtained his black belt under Gracie and was his prized student. Franklin is currently ranked as a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Jorge Gurgel though I honestly do not consider his game to be anywhere near the brown belt level--he may be high blue belt if that. Jorge Gurgel is no Carlson Gracie and runs many, many satellite schools in the Cincinnati, Ohio area. His jujitsu is not very good to begin with and his teachings have transferred well onto Franklin. If this fight becomes a grappling match it will be over quickly as Belfort is technically superior and he will be able to tap Franklin easily.

In terms of striking, Franklin can pack a punch and has the power to knock out Belfort, however, he has not been able to finish higher level opponents with his striking. Though he has knockout wins over Matt Hamill at UFC 88: Breakthrough, Travis Lutter at UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre II, Jason MacDonald at UFC 68: Uprising, Nathan Quarry at UFC 56: Full Force and Evan Tanner at UFC 53: Heavy Hitters, these guys are not considered top level. Franklin does well against mid level fighters but when it comes to higher ranked guys, he looks awkward and is no where near as dominating as people make him out to be.

Though Franklin has some decent striking power, he is not very technical. He has some good over hand punches but any fighter with good technical ability can parry or dodge any of his strikes. Franklin has never fought such a pure striker as Belfort and Belfort will be able to catch him with short technical shots in which he uses to set up the hook and over hand right. Belfort has great technical striking skills--so much so that he has been in a professional boxing march against Josemario Neves where he won by TKO after knocking Neves to the ground three times.

Belfort always has his hands up and chin down when he strikes. He has only been knocked out by one fighter in his career--Randy Couture, once at UFC 49: Unfinished Business and the other time way back at UFC 15: Collision Course. I cannot see Franklin being able to hurt Belfort in the stand up.

At the end of the day, Franklin will be overwhelmed by Belfort’s speed, power, and technique. Though Franklin has power, he does not much skill in the stand up. He may have beat Wanderlei Silva at UFC 99: The Comeback, but Wanderlei Silva was no where near the top of his game and Belfort will not be as open Wanderlei Silva was.

The only other fighter that Franklin has fought that was on the quicker side was Anderson Silva where Franklin was overwhelmed by his pure speed and technique. Franklin has always fought powerful strikers but never any pure technical strikers. Belfort will put on a good show and expose Franklin for his lack of skill.

Bottom Line:  Rich Franklin is not as good of a fighter as most people think he is and his weaknesses will be exposed everywhere in this fight. Belfort is currently in the prime of his career and with Randy Couture and Xtreme Couture in his corner to train and guide him, he is better than he has ever been. Belfort is not called the Phenom for not. Though it took him a while to get his headspace back, he will once again show a side of his fight game that many have not seen in a long while.

He will be patient and have good counterstrikes. He will wait for Franklin to come in and once Franklin advances, he will catch him with a hook. Belfort will out strike Franklin and his counter strikes will send him to the ground.

Once Franklin is down Belfort will pounce and hold him with his good top game for a ground and pound victory. As the odds are at +135, the best bet for this fight is to lay some serious coin on the underdog.

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