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Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+105) vs. Junior "Cigano" dos Santos (-135)

by Stan Leung
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Bet on UFC 103 at 5 Dimes

UFC 103 Franklin vs. Belfort
September 19th 2009 7 PM
Mirko Filipovic vs. Junior dos Santos
UFC Betting Pick: Cro Cop (+105)

Bet this MMA UFC fight at 5 Dimes

Heavyweight bout: Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović (+105) vs. Junior "Cigano" dos Santos (-135)

How have the mighty fallen. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović (34-6-2-1) the once PrideFC 2006 Open weight Grand Prix Champion and one of the most feared fighters in the world is now no longer the MMA fighter he once was. 

For some reason, the UFC really wants Filipović within their fold. On July 3, 2009 Filipović re-signed with the organization after getting an offer "he could not refuse" from UFC co-owner Lorenzo Fertitta who personally journeyed to Filipović hometown of Zagreb in Croatia, amidst rumors Filipović was to scheduled to return to Dream to fight Mighty Mo.  

At one time Filipović was one of the most feared MMA fighters, now he is a mere shadow of who he once was where no man fears his game. Is Filipović done? In my humble opinion, yes but only at the elite level. His last fight in the UFC was quite the non-spectacle as he should have easily picked apart Mostapha Al-turk at UFC 99: The Comeback, but only won the bout because of an eye poke.

If there is such a thing as a UFC curse, Filipović has it bad. Outside the UFC he is reigns with legendary fights and wins over Josh Barnett at Pride Final Conflict Absolute, Pride 30: Fully Loaded and Pride 28: High Octane, Wanderlei Silva at Pride Final Conflict Absolute, Aleksander Emelianenko at Pride Final Conflict 2004, Kevin Randleman at Pride Total Elimination 2004, Heath Herring at Pride 26: Bad to the Bone, Kazuyuki Fujita at Inoki Bom-Ba-Ye 2002 and Kazushi Sakuraba at Pride Shockwave 2002. Filipović also great back and forth fight loses to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at Pride Final Conflict 2003, Mark Hunt at Pride Shockwave 2005 and a decision loss to the top pound for pound fighter in the world Fedor Emelianenko at Pride Final Conflict 2005.

Next to Emelianenko, Filipović, was the most feared fighter in the world, however, since he joined the UFC, all his fights have been disappointing. He has lost to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70: Nations Collide and Cheick Kongo at UFC 75: Champion vs. Champion and his wins in were against fighters he should have easily picked apart. So the question remains if Filipović can still play with the big boys. He is not the same fighter he once was but he can still perform at the mid level, and this is exactly the kind of fighter he will be facing at UFC 103. In this fight Filipović is pitted against the kind of fighter that will match his style perfectly.

He will be fighting Junior "Cigano" dos Santos (8-1) who fights under the former interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. He last fought against Stefan Struve at UFC 95, defeating him by TKO in the first round. Junior dos Santos is a very good fighter but still green in terms of MMA. His first MMA bout was in 2006 so he is relatively new to the sport and though Filipović may be done at the elite level, he still has what it takes to win fights, especially against younger inexperienced fighters like dos Santos.

Junior dos Santos will not be able to surprise anyone. He has a monster KO over Filipović’s teammate, Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote, so no one will be coming into this fight unsuspecting of his power, however, dos Santos is trying to up his game and trying to be a pure high level striker. Though dos Santos has won six out of his eight by KO he will up stepping up to fight Filipović who at one time was the most feared standup fighter in the world. Junior dos Santos has never KO’ed a high lever fighter besides Fabricio Werdum who in all likelihood took the fight too lightly.

Despite dos Santos being a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt under Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira, he will not take this fight to the ground but will opt to stand and strike as that is what he does best. This will work for Filipović who will be able to take this fight with his superior striking. Filipović has enough experience to avoid any submission attempts dos Santos may have for him and regardless, he trains with Fabricio Werdum, a world class grappler. This fight will start and end standing with dos Santos bearing the brunt of the punishment as he is just not at the level Filipović is at.

Bottom Line: dos Santos will try to stand up and trade shots with Filipović which will be his downfall. Though most people believe think Filipović is finished he can still fight (the UFC brass believed enough in him to re-sign him) and he was a K-1 World Grand Prix 2000 runner up in Fukuoka, K-1 World Grand Prix 1999 runner up and IKBF World Heavyweight Full Contact Champion at one time. Filipović still has the striking ability to come into this fight and KO dos Santos and has a 23 and 7 K1 record to prove it. Junior dos Santos is not a K1 level striker and has never faced a high level striker like Filipović before.

When is comes to UFC betting, Filipović is an underdog at +105. He should be based on his past UFC performances but this is a great opportunity to get a highly skilled fighter. I would wait until just before the fight to take Filipović as the betting lines will mostly go into his favor. Another good bet is a UFC prop bet for Filipović to win by KO. He may not be the fighter he once was but he still can fight and many fighters may over look. Do not let his past performances fool you as Filipović is back and under contract. If he is mentally right and in shape he will walk through dos Santos, easy. If not, he will have a tougher go of it but still beat Junior dos Santos.

Regardless, Filipović will win this fight. He is aware that he has not performed well in the UFC and as he has overcome his leg injuries, I see Filipović coming into this fight in the best shape of his life. Remember, the sports betting lines has dos Santos as a favorite only because of one good fight— Filipović has had at least 20 great fights in his career. Though he has slipped recently, he has still gone up against top level fighters where dos Santos has not. I will take experience over youth any day and no fighter has as much experience as Filipović in mixed martial arts.

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