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UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira Wagering, Betting Lines and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira
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Randy “The Natural” Couture (-190) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)by Stan Leung |
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UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira Heavyweight bout: Randy “The Natural” Couture (-190) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150) Is the career of Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1) really over? Has he been in one too many mixed martial arts fights in his career? His last fight was with Frank Mir at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008, where Nogueira looked punch drunk and very much like a tired and old fighter that has been in one too many battles. Nogueira has gone up against the toughest fighters in the world and has been known to take punishment over and over again but he has always been able to pull a victory after being beat on. However, Nogueira seemed to be lacking in his last few--is this the curtain call for a brilliant MMA career? Nogueira will be fighting Randy “The Natural” Couture (16-9) who may also be in his MMA twilight. The winner of this fight will able to prolong his career for another fight or two while the loser may be forced to retire. This fight will be a classic wrestling versus jiujutsu matchup. Though both fighters are well versed in several disciplines, at the end of the day each will end up relying upon what he is most familiar with to come up on top. So who will prevail—the olympic caliber wrestler or the Brazilian jiujitsu black belt? Though Nogueira may be a step behind Couture and scarred from one too many battles, at the end of the day I still like the fighter who is able to pull a submission from anywhere. Couture is an icon in the MMA which makes him a good bet as he will receive favorable odds from sentimental fans and at +150 this is a great underdog bet to make. I still consider Nogueira to be one of the top heavyweights in the world and I do believe that despite the punishment he has received at the hands of his many opponents, he is still a top contender. Couture on the other hand at the age of 46 may be past his prime. Despite his battle weary looks Nogueira is only 33, in prime shape and still possesses the skills and talent necessary to take on most MMA candidates. Though I have never considered age to be a factor in any of my previous MMA matchups, at the age of 46 years, I do believe that Couture no longer has what it takes to pull off a victory. Striking wise Couture is superior. Though Nogueira is a better technical striker because of his professional boxing training, Couture still has more power, especially with his over hand punches. The difference here is that Couture has learned to use this skill to win fights. Couture has been able to hone his striking over the years and has utilized it to his advantage to win fights such as over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74: Respect and Tim Sylvia at UFC 68: The Uprising. Nogueira tends to use his striking to setup takedowns while Couture uses his for damage and knockouts. Nogueira will be able to see Couture’s punches coming as Couture tries to land the decisive blow. Couture does not have the technique to out strike Nogueira but Nogueira does has the ability to see any looping overhand shots Couture will be throwing at him. Though Couture may land some big shots, he will not over commit in his striking and Nogueira will deflect until he lands a takedown. In battles past Couture was never known as a striker but more of a ground and pound fighter. It has only been in recent years that his striking has improved however, his grappling has not kept pace. In terms of grappling Nogueira can submit anybody from anywhere. Couture is not a good bottom game fighter and if Nogueira gains top position he will be able to submit Couture with ease. Couture has next to no ground game. Though he can ground and pound he will not be able to control Nogueira. For starters, there is Nogueira’s size to consider, and second, Nogueira has very active hips. Couture will not be able to pin down Nogueira like he has been able to with his other opponents. Though Couture may say he would like to continue to fight, in reality this may not be the case nor is it necessary. He has his training facility in Vegas with Xtreme Couture, his clothing line, his TV and press conference appearances, as well as various other activities outside of MMA. On the other hand, as a personality Nogueira is not as well sought after as Couture and as a businessman, he definitely does not have the depth. These are very important factors to weigh in terms of whom really has more to lose in this fight. Bottom Line: Both fighters are no longer who they used to be with Couture’s days as a MMA fighter numbered. Look for Couture to attempt to keep this fight standing up and to land power shots instead of using jabs to set up his moves. Couture can content in the stand up battle however, I do not foresee him knocking Nogueira out as he will misjudge and come in too close which is where Nogueira will down and submit him. If Couture moves in too close Nogueira will sweep him like he did with Tim Sylvia and roll for a choke. Even if he is not able to secure the choke he will get top position where he will dominate Couture. In terms of UFC betting wise at +150 for Nogueira, I would lay some good coin on the line. Sportsbook oddsmakers only consider Nogueira’s last fight and not his career as a whole. Up until his last battle Nogueira was considered to be the best heavyweight in the world and after one weak fight, he is being written off. This is the best time to bet on Nogueira as he considered to be down and out. As for Captain America, he has always been the sports betting underdog and the times he was considered to be the betting favorite, he was unable to deliver. It pains me to say this, but I really do believe this may be the stance for Couture. At the end of the day Nogueira is a better fighter with more skills. He can take a beating and will end up with a submission. Though Couture will control the first part of the fight, in the end Nogueira will put out a submission. Look for Nogueira to Submit Couture in the Third Round with a ChokeBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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