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Nate “The Great” Marquardt (-160) vs. Demian Maia (+130)

by Stan Leung
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Bet on UFC 102 at 5 Dimes

UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira
August 29th 2009 7 PM
Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
UFC Betting Pick: Demian Maia (+130)

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UFC Middleweight bout: Nate “The Great” Marquardt (-160) vs. Demian Maia (+130)

Most of the time I would go with the fighter that has the better overall skills but in the case of Demian Maia (10-0), who is so good at grappling that he currently has to be the most dangerous man on the ground in the UFC today.

Nate “The Great” Marquardt (28-8-2) is a better all-around fighter. He is trained by Greg Jackson, the best coach in mixed martial arts, is a decent striker and has great no gi grappling skills. On paper Marquardt is the bigger, more skilled fighter in the stand up. He is no slouch on the ground, as he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricardo Murgel and. He is also second degree black belt in Pancrase Mxed Martial Arts/Jiu-Jitsu so Marquardt knows his ground game.

In my previous MMA handicapping matchups I have always praised fighters out of the Greg Jackson camp. Every Jackson fighter has been well disciplined and came prepared for battle with a great game plan. His guys listen to him in the corner and he is by far the best trainer in MMA. Marquardt is no exception and Jackson will have him ready for Maia.

In terms of striking, Marquardt is a much better fighter. He currently has six knock out victories and will try to keep his distance in order to out strike Maia. Though not known for his striking he has some impressive KO victories over Wilson Gouveia at UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson and Martin Kampmann at UFC 88: Breakthrough. His game plan will be to win the stand up battle and avoid the ground, as despite his all-around skills, one cannot overlook the fact that Maia is superior to Marquardt on the ground.

In many ways Demian Maia owns the ground game. He is a second degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has several major tournaments victories under Team Brasa. He won the 77 kg - 87 kg weight division at the 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship defeating Yushin Okami, Rafael Lovato, Tarsis Humphres and Flavio Almeida. He also won the 2007 Super Challenge under 83 kg belt, defeating Vitelmo Kubis Bandeira, Gustavo Machado and Fabio Negao by guillotine choke in the finals. Just look at his grappling accomplishments:

ADCC World Submission Wrestling Championships

• ADCC 2007 77–87 kg: 1st place
  ADCC 2005 77–87 kg: 2nd place

CBJJ World Championships

• 2001 Brown Belt Medio-Pesado: 2nd Place
• 2000 Purple Belt Medio-Pesado: 1st Place
• 1999 Blue Belt Medio: 2nd Place

CBJJ Brazilian Championships

• 2006 Black Belt Absolute: 2nd Place & Black Belt Medium Heavy: =3rd Place
• 2002 Brown Belt Medio-Pesado: =3rd Place
• 2001 Brown Belt Medio-Pesado: 1st Place & Brown Belt Medio-Pesado: =3rd Place

CBJJO Copa Del Mundo

• 2005 –85 kg Black Belt: 1st Place
• 2003 Black Belt Meio Pesado: =3rd Place & Black Belt Absolute: 1st Place
• 2002 Black Belt Meio Pesado: 1st Place & Black Belt Absolute: 2nd Place

Not to underscore Marquardt who can also handle the ground, but he is nowhere near in the same league as Maia. When it comes to sports betting the oddsmakers have the online UFC betting lines set correctly. Marquardt should be the betting favorite but there is just something about Maia and his game.

Bottom Line: You cannot overlook Maia’s ground game. He is more than Marquardt can handle on he ground and Marquardt is only at best, a decent striker. Out of his 28 wins he has 15 of them by submission. He will try to keep the fight standing but I can see instinct setting in and he will want to test his luck on the ground. At some point in the fight, whether or not Marquardt wants it to or not, Maia will take the battle to the ground where he will pull guard or shoot in. Marquardt might try to grapple with Maia but this will be the end of him. He does not have the overwhelming stand up power needed to knockout Maia and if this fight does go in close, Maia is a master at takedowns. He may even pull guard just to get the ground and once this fight is down, it will be very difficult for Marquardt to handle Maia.

UFC Betting wise I would lay a fair amount on Maia--his ground game is just too overwhelming. Yes, Marquardt is a better all-around fighter but I love the odds for this fight. One side note though, Marquardt has not done well with Brazilians. He lost to Thales Leites at UFC 85: Bedlam, Anderson Silva at UFC 73: Stacked and Ricardo Almeida. Look for another Marquardt loss to a Brazilian at UFC 102.

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