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“The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine (-165) vs. Thiago Silva (+135)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira
August 29th 2009 7 PM
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
UFC Betting Pick: Keith Jardine (-165)

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UFC Light Heavyweight bout: “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine (-165) vs. Thiago Silva (+135)

“The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine (14-5-1) does not get any respect in the UFC. Though affective, his style of fighting is not pretty to watch. His striking is awkward and tends to confuse a lot of fighters—Thiago Silva included. It will be hard to prepare for a fighter like Jardine.

Jardine is good fighter who has fought notable opponents. He has gone against top level MMA fighters such as Wilson Gouveia at The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale, Forrest Griffin at UFC 66 – Liddell vs Ortiz II, Chuck Liddell at UFC 76 – Knockout, Wanderlei Silva at UFC 84 – Ill Will, Brandon Vera at UFC 89 – Bisping vs Leben and Quinton Jackson at UFC 96 – Jackson vs. Jardine. In his last seven fights, five have been against top ten level fighters with his last against Rampage Jackson where he was able to go five rounds unhurt against one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Two of the three judges who scored this particular fight later stated that Jardine would have won if he had not been knocked down in the final seconds of the third round.

Though Silva is 13 and 1, he has not fought any notable fighters with 10 of his first 12 fights against virtual no-name combatants. Add to this James Irvin at UFC 71: Liddell vs. Jackson and Houston Alexander at UFC 78: Validation. Both of these fighters are very one-dimensional and Silva did not have too much to fear in their ground game. When he did step up to fight a top level fighter however, Silva was definitely outmatched. So the question remains—is Thiago Silva a top level fighter. I believe so, but not at this point of his career. 

Keith Jardine does not get much respect, but he is still a very good fighter and at the end of the day he will confuse Thiago Silva with his striking. Jardine has perhaps the second strangest striking style in MMA with Lyoto Machida owning the title. When Silva fought Machida at UFC 94: St-Pierre vs. Penn 2, he was thoroughly confused by Machida’s striking. He could not figure out Machida’s game and Silva lost at the end of the opening round by a brutal KO.


If he cannot figure out Jardine, Silva may face the same fate again. Technically, Silva is a better striker and is more powerful than Jardine. His striking is clean and he is known for his great Muay Thai Knees and his vicious ground and pound. However, this is not a Muay Thai fight and Jardine is not a Muay Thai fighter.

It will be interesting to see how Silva will contend against a fighter like Jardine with his awkward yet very effective strikes. His jerking striking style will definitely confuse Silva who has never seen a fighter fight like this before. How can he prepare for a fighter when their striking style is so unorthodox? 

When it comes to grappling, Jardine is the superior as he has a very good no gi game. Again, Silva may be the more technical ground fighter but it is known that Jardine rolls with some very good ground fighters everyday in the gym. He currently trains with Jackson's Submission Fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Greg Jackson is currently MMA’s best trainer, and while under Jackson, Jardine game has improved vastly. In all of the Jackson camp, Jardine is the most obedient fighter and will adhere to the game plan prepared for him by Jackson. Jardine will come into this match prepared which will be a definite advantage.

Though Silva has better technical grappling skills, it is unlikely this fight will go to the ground. Even if it does, Jardine has enough skill not to be overwhelmed by Silva as he and Silva both currently train with some of the best grapplers in the world. Jardine with the likes of Nate Marquardt, Georges St-Pierre, Rashad Evans, Karo Parisyan and Shane Carwin.


His grappling is more MMA based with an emphasis on wrestling while Silva trains at American Top Team with top level grapplers like Marcelo Garcia, Jeff Monson, Marcus Aurelio and Carlson Gracie grappling legends Ricardo Liborio, Marcus "Conan" Silveira and Marcelo Silveira. Fundamentally Silva has a better base and top game.

Despite their training there is not a clear overwhelming advantage when it comes to grappling for either party, though I believe the key for Silva to win this fight is to take it to the ground. Nevertheless, Silva will most likely keep this fight standing and Jardine has enough sprawl and takedown defenses to keep this fighting standing as well for the duration. Remember, Silva’s main area of expertise is Muay Thai and I can see him underestimating Jardine’s power.

Bottom Line: This is not going to be a ground battle of which everyone already knows. In terms of sports betting, the lines are fairly decent for Jardine on the moneyline. At -165 online UFC sports bettors can still get good value for their money and in the end one needs to go with the better all-around fighter. Jardine has more experience both in and out of the UFC, has gone against better fighters, has more top ten levels fights, has a better training team, and he has a fighting style that Silva needs to reckon with.


In the end, Jardine will down Silva with kicks and will be able avoid Silva’s strikes with his weird fighting style. The best bet for this fight is to place a moneyline on Jardine but I would also take a parlay on this fight as well. Another bet to consider is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance. Take this fight on the moneyline and a prop bet for Jardine to win by a three round decision. 

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