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B.J. Penn (-195) vs. Kenny Florian (+155)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 101: Declaration
August 8th 2009 7 PM
BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian
UFC Betting Pick: BJ Penn (-195)

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Lightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn (-195) vs. Kenny Florian (+155)

Does The Prodigy BJ Penn (13-5-1) still have the drive to fight mixed martial arts? Will he take Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian (11-3) lightly for their upcoming UFC Lightweight Championship bout? And will BJ Penn train hard for this MMA fight? As he did not train hard for his mega bout with Georges St Pierre do we really believe he will train hard for Florian?

Despite all these unanswered questions BJ Penn is still by far a better fighter than Florian and will remain champion at the end of the day. All in all, Penn is a superior fighter with a greater skill set and even if he was to only put in half the effort, he should be able to walk away from this battle. Though Florian is on a six fight win streak these victories were against average fighters. As he is stepping up and facing a top level contender, he will no doubt be made aware of any shortcomings he has been able to mask until now.

Sport betting wise, this is a good fight to wager on. Sports book odds makers, as well as the majority of the MMA general populace, most likely believe that Penn will not take this fight too seriously and as a result, the UFC betting lines have reflected this. At -195 this bet is a steal. If this was any other fighter, sportsbook lines would be hovering around -300 to -350 and this bet is a great price at which to wager on Penn.

Kenny Florian has improved substantially since the early days of the Ultimate Fighter reality series. However, during that time, BJ Penn has been busy doing battle with every top level fighter in mixed martial arts with the likes of Georges St-Pierre at UFC 94: St-Pierre vs. Penn 2, Sean Sherk at UFC 84: Ill Will, Joe Stevenson at UFC 80: Rapid Fire, Jens Pulver at Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale, Matt Hughes at UFC 63: Hughes vs. Penn as well as other top level fighters such as Renzo Gracie, Lyoto Machida, Rodrigo Gracie, Duane Ludwig, Takanori Gomi, Caol Uno, and Matt Serra. And who are some of the notables Florian has come up against? The only top level fighter Florian has come up against was Sean Sherk at UFC 64: Unstoppable where he lost the stand up battle even though he was dominate throughout the fight—note: BJ Penn was able to take Sherk apart in their contest.

Though Florian has improved immensely and though he will be a top level fighter one day, his time has yet to come and he will be dominated by Penn in this fight. He does not have the skills to grapple or strike with someone of Penn’s caliber and his experience level is nowhere near that of Penn either. When it comes to grappling, there is no question that Penn is the better fighter--at best, Florian’s grappling skills are average though is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In all his previous fights Florian has been able to submit his opponents by rear naked choke. It is highly unlikely he will be able to take Penn’s back in this fight. Florian does not have the dominate top grappling game to control Penn and he has never fought with anyone who have has the flexibility nor moves that Penn has. Once he gains top control, Florian will not be able to shake him. He will not be able to hold down Penn in the top half guard and use his elbow and he will not be able to pass Penn’s guard. If Penn gains the top control game this match will be pretty much over.

Though he has lost to Matt Hughes and Georges St Pierre (twice), at that time Penn was at welterweight and was the smaller fighter. Since then Penn has found his home in the 155 pound division and in this class, there is no one in the UFC that can take him. In the past Penn has struggled with larger opponents but Florian is not bigger nor is he stronger. In this match we will see Penn use his superior grappling skills and Florian unable to answer to Penn’s dominate control and flexibility. Penn has authored books on grappling and is one of the foremost experts in grappling in the US. In 1997 Penn begun training in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ralph Gracie with whom he eventually earned his purple belt. He then moved to train with Nova União where he was awarded his black belt in 2000 by Andre Pederneiras. A few weeks later he became the first non-Brazilian to win the black-belt division of the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship in Brazil. Penn’s grappling resume reads as follows:


CBJJ World Championships
2000 Black Belt Pena: 1st Place
1999 Brown Belt Level: 3rd Place
1998 Blue Belt Pena: 2nd Place
CBJJ Brazilian Team Championships
2000 Marrom Preta Leve: Nova União, 1st Place


When it comes to striking however, Florian has a slight advantage over Penn, however, boxing wise Penn is the more dangerous striker. Penn has better technical skills when it comes to striking. He has power in his punches and has the ability to knock out Florian but he will only set up his punches with a takedown. In his 11 mixed martial arts wins Florian has only three knockouts and though the UFC hypes him up as a great striker, in reality, he is not.  

It has been said that Florian has vicious elbows and great Muay Thai skills and though his skills are above average, they are not great. His one key to victory is with his kicks and as Penn has openly claimed he does not practice kicks, he does however, check kicks frequently so it is anticipated that Florian, will not be able to distract Penn this way.

Bottom Line: Is Kenny Florian a worthy opponent for BJ Penn? Apparently the UFC believes he is however, the 155 pound lightweight division is fairly thin at the moment and similar to Georges St Pierre in the welterweight division Penn is heads and tails above the rest of the competition. Florian will give Penn a bit trouble but it is unlikely he will be more than that. Similar to other UFC matches this fight is more about marketing than anything else. The UFC does not believe in paying for top talent and instead chooses to market and hype fighters of average talent such as Florian. A prime example is the Bisping/Henderson fight. One was a real fighter with proven MMA experience while the other, a marketed reality show combatant. In the end Penn will expose a fighter who is not yet ready to challenge for the title and who needs significant improvement in all facets of the game before he can even be considered a good fighter, instead of being marketed as one.

BJ Penn will expose the flaws in the average Kenny Florian similar to his match with Joe Stevenson.  Though Penn has never fought a person beyond the top ten in any of his MMA fights, Florian has fought a top ten in three instances and has two loses to show for it. As a UFC bettor, bet heavily on BJ Penn.

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