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UFC 100
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Georges “Rush” St Pierre (-341) vs Thiago “The Pitbull” Alvesby Stan Leung |
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UFC 100 Welterweight Championship Fight Georges “Rush” St Pierre (-341) vs Thiago “The Pitbull” Alves (+260) Sportsbook odd makers are way off with these online UFC betting odds. Will Georges “Rush” St Pierre (20-2) win this fight? Yes--but only barely. Though St Pierre should be a betting favourite, the odds should not be stacked so high in his favour. This alone should detour anyone from betting on this particular fight. St Pierre will win this fight but in my opinion he only has a 55/45 chance of coming up as the victor and it is not worth laying out a fortune on this mixed martial arts fight. -341 is just too steep. Pound for pound St Pierre is one of the best all round skilled fighters in the world. He grappling is top notch and his wresting skills are something to be recokened with. St Pierre earned his brown belt from Renzo Gracie and his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Bruno Fernandes while his background in Kyokushin karate has given him a very good striking and kicking technique. He is a very smart and calculating fighter and has always been well trained and conditioned for his matches. I believe St Pierre will take this fight but I am concerned with what may be a ‘weak’ chin as he has never fought against anyone with as much striking power as Thiago Alves (16-3). Alves is viciously powerful with his punches and kicks and if he is able to catch St Pierre off guard, St Pierre he will go down. The problem with this particular mixed martial arts fight is that St Pierre is by far the best 170 UFC welterweight fighter in the world and the fact is I do not consider Alves a welterweight. He is a middleweight and in the past has had trouble making 170 pounds. In his fight with Tony DeSouza at UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz II, Alves tested positive for banned diuretics meaning he was taking them to cut or make weight. In his last fight with Matt Hughes he was 5 pounds overweight which means he was 175 pounds at the time of the fight pointing to the face he was perhaps 200 pounds before the weight cut. Alves is not a welterweight and once again he will struggle to make 170 pounds. If he is not able to do so by fight time, he will be fighting at 185 to 190 pounds. In most cases St Pierre has been the larger and stronger fighter but unfortunately in this instance he will not, and if is he is hit by Alves, he may be knocked out. Avles is not called the Pitbull for nothing. He is now riding a seven-fight win streak and has won nine of his past ten MMA matches with consecutive performances against Karo Parisyan at UFC Fight Night 13, Matt Hughes at UFC 85: Bedlam and Josh Koscheck at UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté. He is a vicious pressure fighter that likes to push the fight with his advances. St Pierre has yet to face a fighter with as much drive as Alves which is not good--especially if you have lay a ton of cash on a St Pierre victory. This is a very precarious fight to wager on and though I personally will not be betting this time around, it does not mean I will do not think St Pierre will win. Georges St Pierre possesses much better wrestling skills and for him to control the fight he has to gain a top position before he can takedown Alves. With his superior wrestling skills and his top game in the ground and pound he definitely has what it takes to get the job done. Even BJ Penn could not maneuver his way out of St Pierre’s top control game and neither will Alves if he can take him down. As St Pierre trains with the Canadian National Wrestling Team and as his takedowns are known to be textbook, if he can circle Alves and stay away from his range, St Pierre may be able to frustrate him and then go for the takedowm. If this fight goes to the ground and St Pierre is on top, he will take this fight. When it comes to grappling St Pierre is also superior and continues to upgrade his skills in various BJJ camps. He has trained with Bruno Fernandes, Renzo Gracie and has even gone to Rio de Janeiro to train at Gracie Barra and Nova Uniao. He is constantly evolving whilst improving his grappling game. Alves has had only one submission victory which was a verbal submission victory due to strikes. Though Alves is a striker through and through he lacks ground game. Though he trains at American Top Team under Carlson Gracie black belts Ricardo Liborio, Marcus "Conan" Silveira and Marcelo Silveira, he does not concentrate on his ground game as much as St Pierre. Alves has two losses by submission and to fighters that are not known as submission artists--Derrick Noble and Spencer Fisher. St Pierre is a very good top and bottom submission fighter while Alves is a much better top fighter but I do not see him getting top position due to St Pierre’s wresting. Grappling speed is another factor. On the ground St Pierre has fast hip movement and can scramble for submission attempts on both his back and from the top position. Bottom Line: the one thing that worries me about this UFC bet is the money line betting spread and the power of Alves. Though Alves has the striking power and advantage, he has never fought a good striker like St Pierre. Alves had fought Marcus Davis and narrowly won a split decision. St Pierre is a very goods striker. Though he does not have much power he is very technical and will pick his shots. All St Pierre needs to do is withstand the initial pressure and than assert his game plan. Strategy will be the deciding factor in this fight and St Pierre is coached by the best MMA mind in the game and will have a good plan coming into the fight. Though ATT is a great school with some great fighters and though Greg Jackson is a master tactician and will have an excellent game plan for Alves, it will pale in comparison to what St Pierre will be offering up. St Peirre will wait and keep his distance and than go in for the kill. Once he has control of the top game he will be able to control and beat down Alves. GSP is a top pound for pound fighter and he will win this title fight. He has all the tools and just needs to fight smart and not get caught. If he can control the ground he will have an easy time, but if this becomes a stand up war it will be more difficult. In terms of sports betting this is not a good fight to wager on. If the UFC betting odds were closer I would put my money on GSP but not at -341. When the moneyline at -341 I would want a sure thing and Alves has a punchers chance so I personally am laying off his bet. There are much safer bets but in the end Georges St Pierre is a smarter and better well rounded fighter that will control and dictate the pace for a five round decision victory. Tough Fight but Georges St Pierre Win Pull this Fight Off to Retain His Welterweight CrownBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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